Fashion Notebook

Research Desk: Girls Will Give Up Coffee Before Concealer

The current economic situation may look ugly, but that doesn’t mean women want to. Which, at least, is some good news for marketers and health and beauty retailers.

According to the Allure Beauty Index, an online survey of 1,088 readers of Allure magazine conducted on its Web site in April, 75% of respondents said they would give up other indulgences before they would stop buying their favorite beauty products.

What’s more, 84% of those surveyed said they felt beauty “is a necessity in life.” We know, we know, it is a little bit cringe-inducing, y'know, given what's happening in Myanmar right now, and I don't know, immigrant refugees being burned alive in South Africa. But this is the U.S. peeps, where it's OK to put beauty, and fashion, first. After all, many of our basic needs are met, or at least so the popular media tells us. Plus, there's that big news event of that big big big movie coming out now, guys! It's so big even the international press is getting Carried away. (We promise, no more SATC references. God knows we've had enough of them!)

Sorry, we're getting off track today. More to the point for marketers, 65% agreed with the statement that “you can't put a budget on beauty,” which means charge whatever the f*ck you want for those not-tested-on-animals powders, creams and compounds.         

When asked where they would look to cut back their spending, those surveyed ranked the affected categories as follows:

    •    Dining out: 69%                         •    Home goods 44%            
    •    Jewelry/watches: 59%               •    Clothing: 37%
    •    Electronics: 58%                        •    Automobile: 30%
    •    Entertainment: 51%                        •    Beauty products: 16%
    •    Vacation: 45%

   

Not that Starbucks hasn’t recently been hit with enough ugly financial news, 79% of respondents said they would “eliminate afternoon Starbucks’ runs” in order to be able to afford their favorite beauty products. In addition, 56% said they would alter their vacation plans to free up funds for their beauty needs.               

The survey did have good news for some food retailers: 61% said they would save money by switching to
lower-priced “generic” food brands at the grocery store. That means, like, buying 365 Organic at Whole Foods, right?

Financial Desk: Sales Down, But Earnings Up 40% for Gap, as Retailer Cuts Marketing Budget

We hate to see this, because it means less creative, but cutting its marketing expenses was one tactic that helped Gap bolster its bottom line, even as sales continued their slide into the red.

In addition to other cost cutting measures that included reduced remodeling efforts for Old Navy stores, and a $15 million pre-tax earnings benefit, Sabrina Simmons, Gap Inc.’s EVP/CFO, said in an earnings call late Thursday that “lower marketing expenses” also helped lift earnings 40% to $249 million, for the quarter ended May 3.

So where was the blood spilled in the marketing department?

Well, ad spend dropped almost 18% from the year-earlier period, closing at $93 million for the quarter. The $21 million reduction was due in large part to the absence of TV spots for the Gap brand, Simmons said. However, she added that shareholders and analysts shouldn’t expect such cuts to continue.

“Unlike this first quarter, we expect our marketing expenses in the second quarter to be fairly similar to last year’s level of $88 million,” she said.

Yay! Maybe we'll have some more fun creative to look forward to this summer, when we're all staying indoors and running the air conditioners to escape from global warming. That is, though of us who have TV. (We're luddites, y'all, except when we visit our wife to watch rounds and rounds of Lifetime Movies.)

While earnings might have been a bright spot, and showed the beleaguered firm capable of trimming costs for the benefit of its investors, sales trends showed signs of trouble amid an economic slowdown that has the whole retail industry reeling. Comp store sales at Gap North America dropped 7% for the quarter to $976 million, and Old Navy posted an 18% decrease, dropping to $1.2 billion in sales.

If you don't have your financial party hat on, folks, that means, pretty much, "things sucked  over the past three months." Which is too bad for Old Navy, because we, (and the wife), LOVE those new ads. It's like Gossip Girl meets Fred Flare's Crafternoon Delights. Seriously, some fierce-ass dresses that might have the retailer beating Forever 21 at its own game. Seriously, if you haven't seen these ads (also screen-grabbed, above, right), they just might change the way you view Old Navy. They did for us.

Meanwhile, on the richer side of things, Banana Republic's comp store sales dropped 4% to $538 million and Glenn Murphy, chairman and CEO,  said that the brand had been affected by challenging traffic trends, and an “uncharacteristically promotional” environment at the apparel chain’s direct competitors. Thus far, Banana Republic has avoided playing the promotional card to drive sales.

“We’re watching the competitive landscape very closely,” added Murphy. “And [we] are prepared to make the necessary adjustments to drive traffic if this promotional level that we are seeing currently was to continue.”

Yay SALES that are sure to come. Because, honey, that's a brand for the aspirational rich, not the real rich, and we ain't getting any more money any time soon. That is, until Obama is in the White House, but we don't want to get political. We just want good health care, education, and leadership that will get us out of this war, y'know, in less than 100 years. But we digress.

Net sales for the company dropped about 5% to $3.38 billion for the first quarter. The company has maintained its guidance for fiscal 2008 earnings per share to fall in the range of $1.20 to $1.27.

Financial Desk: Have a Cigar, Mr. Frankfort, Coach Sales Rise 19% in Q3

It's good to be Lew Frankfort. 

The Coach CEO today announced that third quarter sales had risen 19%, to $744.5 million, and profits rose 8% to $162.4 million, despite an economic slowdown in the North American market that has shaken the retail industry, and been the scape goat for much recent poor financial performance.

"We were pleased with our performance, especially in light of the worsening retail climate in the U.S.," Frankfort said, in a conference call with analysts this morning. "Overall, Coach's quarterly performance reflected the strength of the Coach franchise and the continued out-performance of the U.S. handbag and accessory category as compared to overall retail sales."

And while the macroeconomic landscape is still too murky for Mr. Frankfort to crystal ball fiscal 2008 performance, he did reveal that he expects to post $3.18 billion in sales for fiscal 2007 (which closes in June—you know, screwy fashion financial calendar), a more than 20% increase that will lift earnings per share to an estimated $2.06.

But it wasn't all sunshine and rainbows. Frankfort also said that the strong quarter reflects also "the critical balance provided by our multi-channel and international business model," which, of course, means that overseas sales were a significant factor, particularly in the Asian market. More telling on the domestic front was the department store weakness, where sales grew only 5% for Coach, versus a total revenue increase of 15% across all channels.

Frankfort attributed the growth, first and foremost, to the company's product, bound together with the "brand proposition" of Coach (read: something of perceived quality, for a range of price points), as well as the company's "broad and loyal  consumer franchise." OK, whatevs Lew, basically you owe the success to having products people want at prices they can still afford, or think they can, for now.

Of course, we'll have to wait and see how this whole recession thing shakes out, but if we had to call it earlier, we'd say that Coach looks to be one of the brands that will weather the storm, and perhaps even make a little bit of money in the process.

There's also some speculation, per WWD, that Frankfort might be getting ready to launch into the women's ready-to-wear business, big time, after poaching a series of designers from the house o' Marc Jacobs. Stay tuned.

Lessons in Branding: Why Going Logo-less Might Be A Good Idea For Luxury Brands During The Recession

There's an interesting  article today in the New York Times' "Thursday
Styles" section.

No, no, read on! It's not another critique of an out-of-touch story on youth trends or pandering pitch about how great the rich are and why we, the not-so-rich should thank our lucky stars they exist. Our friends over at Marx Marvelous have that end covered pretty well.

Rather, today, we're calling out a piece about the absence of logos on Bottega Veneta's luxury sportswear.

The piece, which can be read in full here, looks at how the Italian luxury label has revamped itself without going the route of high-profile monogramming or logoing.

Within the article, journo Ruth La Ferla, extolls the virtues of creative director Tomas Maier's consistent attention to high quality goods that hit the real deal in luxury, rather than merely the perception of luxury, and how his actions have driven the brand to a $500 million annual business, thereby making it the second highest earner for parent Gucci Group.

And then our favorite luxurist, Milton Pedraza, CEO of The Luxury Institute, chimes in to tell La Ferla that during a recession, the rich "don’t want to be screaming luxury right now...They don’t want something flashy that everybody else has. They are looking for unique handcrafted things that can’t immediately be reinterpreted at every level of the marketplace.”

The thing about logos, as we've long felt, is that they can cut both ways. In fact, we've been thinking about our own logo, for Fashion Notebook, which you can check out, at right, but the tech guys haven't yet gotten around to installing it. And maybe, now, we're thinking that's a good thing.

But back to the relevance.

Taking Vuitton, for example, when one of perhaps mass-affluent or aspirational means has laid down the dollars for a fashion piece that is truly of excellent quality, not to mention name recognition, it's, we think, safe to assume that we'd like others to know it. After all, that monogram tells others that we care about quality, perhaps that  we're hip to hot or established names in the industry, and, let's be honest, that we could afford to purchase it. In a sense, we want everyone else to know what that handbag, dress, or accessory was worth, and, by proxy, that we're worth something as well.

The problem, of course, is logos also tell us what everyone else is worth, too. And if we see a bunch of Louis Vuitton monograms on my friends' purses, or luggage, shoes, or, god help us, something bigger and obviously more expensive than the piece we bought, suddenly, Vuitton just doesn't seem so special anymore.

This is to ignore the further complications that arise from knock-offs. If everyone on Canal Street is rocking the monogram, and for a mere percentage point of what we paid, why we'd have a fit and would feel somewhat obligated to inform everyone we saw that, well, no, ours is in fact, real and then go into a litany about the stitching and leather quality that, at best, wouldn't gain us any friends, and, at worst, would lose us those we already count in our ranks.

And let's not forget that this isn't, obviously, just a Vuitton problem. Many other luxury brands feature highly-identifiable logos, monograms, or signature patterns on their products that identify the brand with all the subtlety of a bull horn. Think about those brands you recognize within seconds on some of the products worn by your friends: Coach, Gucci, Burberry, Chanel, Marc Jacobs, Dolce & Gabanna, DSquared, etc. 

As far as the recession, the no-logo route is probably a good idea. After all, those who can afford luxury goods without batting an eye are usually so acclimated to that lifestyle that, well, they don't need to scream it, as Milton says, like the rest of us. And those customers are precisely the ones luxury brands need to be going after in times of serious economic downturns. Sound familiar? Yeah, we've said that before.

And we've also dished with Maier on his strategy. When we were writing that tome about the opportunities and potential pitfalls of lower-tier secondary collections for high-end designers, it was Maier who said (towards the end of the article) he would never consider such an extension because he felt that it would potentially overexposure of the handbag business that is the core of Bottega's sales.

"The philosophy of Bottega Veneta is to produce innovative designs with the highest quality materials and contemporary functionality," Maier told us at the time. "All of this comes with a cost that can't be recreated at a bridge level price."

What remains to be seen, however, is whether or not Mr. Maier's activities give the brand something of a glass ceiling when we're in economic boom times, and everyone is scrambling for top-end designer merchandise. Then again, at $500 million in annual sales, I don't think he's got anything to worry about.

Week in Review Pt. 1: Louis Vuitton Rocks Out, Kohl's Gets Punked, and More Rumbles for the Luxury Market

OK, so we've kinda been bad lovers the past two weeks. Yeah, we admit it;
we haven't been updating as often as we, or you, would like. But our offline
job got a bit crazed last week and that prevented us from posting. So, in effect, it's not you, it's us.

Also, we were, like, on pins and needles waiting for the finale of Project Runway. And, hopefully you'll agree, we're so, so, so, fiercely happy that Christian Siriano won we can barely contain ourselves. Kid has some serious talent, and we're sure that we'll be hearing from him sometime soon. Is he adoptable  by the way? We might just forego that Boston Terrier we'd been planning on bringing home and swap it for that adorable pocket-gay (though he'll have to sleep in a closet, as we're still living in a New York state of reality folks!).

But let's leave all this relationship drama to the Spitzers! It's time to take a look at what's happened, what it means, and where we see things going... So without further ado...

Louis Vuitton's New Bag
Unless you've been hiding out under a mountain of paperwork (like us), you've probably already heard that Rolling Stones guitarist Keith Richards is the new, wrinkly face of Louis Vuitton (SEE PHOTO, BELOW, LEFT). (Insert "Vuitton's new, iconic wrinkled bag" joke here, hell, everyone else has. For SHAME Saturday Night Live! You, like fashion, were more inventive in the 1980s.) If you haven't seen the spot already, check the photo at right.

We have to say to say that this is an interesting choice, and it's already done its job many times over in terms of exposure (more than we'd imagine placing, say, Katherine Heigl, or some other, safer choice, in front of the camera). But hasn't Vuitton really missed the rebel-rock-me boat by like, say, 40 years? We would prefer to see the ads featuring this Keith.

Also, how does John Varvatos feel about all of this. Certainly, the Stones trump Cheap Trick, not to mention the fact that the campaign pretty much cribs from Varvatos' own advertising mantra: Bring back old rockers and consumers will come. Of  course, Varvatos seems to have more credibility here and we're still not sure what a great cover boy Richards is for the brand. After all, while he's definitely rich beyond words—and amazingly still alive—we're just not sold on him as a real luxury guy. Then again, maybe that's what rehab and old age will do to you. I'm sure that he has a wonderful assortment of organic teas backstage, but is he really throwing those outfits in a Vuitton steamer?

Love to hear your thoughts on this. Drop us a line, here.

Kohls Pumps Up Its Juniors Jam with Avril Lavigne
Yeah, the girl ain't punk kids. Then again, Richards sold his ass to Louis Vuitton, so what does define the legitimate rocker persona? Anyways, Avril Lavigne maybe didn't steal your boyfriend, but she did ink a deal with Kohl's to produce "Abbey Dawn," a collection of apparel (priced $24 to $48) and accessories (read: jewelry, for now) that will hit the mass merchant's doors nationwide in July.

The move obviously means that Lavigne will get some dollars in her coffers—seriously, is she even that hot anymore?—but it also seems to really define her audience in a way that could be limiting for the popstar. Launching just in time for back-to-school shopping, the line is allegedly for the "broad group of shoppers" that Lavigne attracts, according to SVP Don Brennan, but we're calling bullshit. If it's B-T-S, the tricks are for kids, and that's fine, after all, those are the types that will pay retail for her album "The Best Damn Thing," which came out last year and for which the star began touring to support last week.

According to spokeswoman Vicki Shamian, the line shouldn't cannibalize any of the retailer's other exclusive brands, like Candies given Avril (and by proxy, her collection's) "feminine yet rock n' roll attitude." [Side note: Meanwhile, no notes on how the Simply Vera collection is doing. If you've got deets, or reactions, or if you've tried on the products, send a note here]. Advertising, on which details aren't yet available, will be handled by the Kohl's in-house team, in conjunction with lead agency McCann Erickson, New York. Stayed tuned.

 

Financial Desk: Luxury Retail's Mixed Bag
Ok, so we've probably hammered this to death, but there might be trouble with the luxury market.

Saks Fifth Avenue announced last week that it had approached roughly $1 billion in sales for the quarter ended Feb. 2, up almost 5% from the year-earlier period, but with comp store sales increasing by 9%. Meanwhile, net income rose dramatically, some 83% drama, to $39.5 million, or 26 cents a diluted share. However, gross margin slipped about 50 basis points to 37.4% of sales.

But there's trouble ahead. According to a statement by chairman and CEO Steven Sadove, January and February comp store sales grew by only 4.1% and 3.4%, respectively, and "previously high-growth rate businesses such as handbags, footwear and men's have slowed."

"As expected, the more challenging promotional and overall macroeconomic environment that we began to experience in the third quarter continued throughout the fourth quarter and put pressure on our merchandise margins," Sadove continued. "Our outsized comparable store sales growth indicates that we significantly improved our competitive positioning by market, driven by our merchandise, service marketing and capital investments."

And then  came the wahn-wahn moment.

"Nothwithstanding our improved performance and the longer-term outlook for the luxury channel, we expect to continue to face an increasingly challenging macroeconomic and promotional environment in 2008, and are taking a more conservative approach to planning the business this year," Sadove said, adding that the company expects to see comp store sales growth in the mid-single digits for 2008, with low-to-mid single digit growth in the first half of the year.

Meanwhile, at Neiman Marcus, positive earnings were also overcast by ominous notes. Revenues at the luxury department store grew almost 6% to $1.37 billion in the second quarter ended Jan. 26, while net earnings grew 8% to $44.3 million. However, February comp stores sales posted a 7.3% decrease.

In a conference call, Neiman Marcus chairman and CEO Burt Tansky seemed to feel, well, pretty much like every other luxury retailer these days. He's playing a cautious game as the news of a buckling economy and decreased consumer spending prophecies an even rougher year.

"As we all know, the entire U.S. retail sector has seen sales growth diminish somewhat, and this slowdown has affected some parts of the luxury market," he said in the call. "Our sense is that the aspirational customer has pulled back somewhat in response to concerns about the U.S. economy in stock and housing markets. However, this aspirational customer appreciates quality and can be expected to buy more as the economy improves. Nevertheless, we feel confident that the pure luxury customer, the affluent to the very affluent, will continue to demand only the finest."

Seems plausible, of course, except that we're not getting at raw numbers here. What's the proportion of aspirational consumers to pure luxury consumers? Wethinks it be disproportionate and that Neiman's might have a few, hopefully not too many, pricey dresses that are staying on the racks as Sex and the City fangirls start closing up their upper-middle class purses.

Research Desk: NPD Study Finds Consumers Not Changing Where They Shop, But Increasingly Looking For Sales

So there's good and bad news in a report released today from NPD Group, Port Washington, N.Y.

First, the good news. While 79% of the survey's 772 respon- dents felt that we are either in, or headed for, an economic recession, the majority aren't really changing where they shop given economic woes.

According to the study, "Fast Checks: Consumers Speak Out on the U.S. Economy," 55% of respondents said that today's economic conditions had "No impact" on where they shop for products. Meanwhile, 26% said that the economy has had "little impact" on where they shop, meaning that they'd changed on or two of the retailers from which they previously shopped. Another 15% said that they have changed "many" of the retailers they shop, while only 4% said that the economy has impacted their buying habits so drastically that they've changed all of the retailers they used to shop.

"Even with all the media attention on the economy, consumers still seem to be focused on their needs and desires," said Marshal Cohen, NPD's chief industry analyst, in a statement. "Consumers are tuned into news about our economy, but they aren't so quick to change what they are doing, including where they shop."

So knowing that the majority of shoppers have experienced either no impact, or very little impact, to their where they buy goods should have retailers breathing a sigh of relief, particularly after a rough round of earnings, right? Well, sort of.

The study also found that consumers are increasingly looking for promotional events to help keep costs down in the shopping cart. According to the survey, 50% of respondents said that they were now more likely to take advantage of store sales than they were six months ago. Of those polled, 38% said that they would be more likely to use coupons, and 8% said that they were more likely to participate in discount and/or membership programs.

According to Cohen, the results indicate that consumers are still going to be moving through retail doors, but that "the retailers are going to have to do more to get them."

"Certainly, promotional incentives of all kinds will be key, but how you market and communicate will help seal the deal," he added.

Financial Desk: Target Treads Water With Q4 Sales, Earnings Fall 8%

Another retailer, another disappointing earnings release. Seriously
folks,  we might just have to turn off our stock ticker for the rest of the day.

Target reports flat sales for the quarter ended Feb. 2, at $19.34 billion, though year-end sales grew 6.2% to $61.5 billion. What?! No sales losses!? This is great news!!

Well, it would be if Target hadn't also posted earnings of $1.03 billion, pr $1.23 per share, down 8.2% from last year. For the full year, the brand only moved the needle 2.2%, growing income to $2.85 billion, or $3.33 a share.

Below, the most obvious conclusions from Target's top dog.

"Our  financial performance in 2007 fell short of our expectations as the pace of sales and earnings slowed considerably in the second half of the year," said Bob Ulrich, chairman and CEO, in a statement. "As we enter 2008, we remain keenly focused on the disciplined execution of our core strategy, positioning Target to deliver improved financial results, even in the face of continue challenges in the current economic environment."

Unfortunately, Bob doesn't elaborate (and we're still waiting for the conference call where, you know, he actually might give us more color on this bland statement) so we don't know what kinds of tricks he's got up his corporate sleeves.

The report also makes no mention of the loss of designer Isaac Mizrahi to Liz Claiborne. Of course, Les Mizrahi's goods will still be sold through the retailer until the end of 2008, but nonetheless, his defection to Liz Claiborne was a major hit.

The designer's namesake collection for the brand brought in a reported $300 million in annual sales, in addition to have a sales-halo effect on the other brands in the store. Given his name and popularity, we get the feeling that it's going to be rather hard to replace him, and certainly the one-offs for the Go International collections which have featured up-and-coming designers probably won't make up the sales loss. Moreover, the collection might not pull in as much this year, given that Target isn't likely to promote it since they won't have the goods after the holidays.

For more on the Mizrahi switcheroo, check out our previous post, here.

Financial Desk: On Q4 and FY07 Losses, Macy's To Investors: "Hey, We're Not Doing As Badly As The Others!"

It's not a good day for retailers, with many reporting sales
and earnings slumps.

In its report this morning, Macy's appears to be hoping that they might at least look better than the competition.

"While a weakened economic environment led our industry to softer financial results than initially expected, Macy's, Inc. did outperform most of our primary competitors in the fourth quarter," said Terry Lundgren, chairman, president and CEO, in a statement. "We also generated significant cash flow despite weaker-than-expected sales trends. Going  forward, we are aggressively pursuing our recently announced market localization initiative to drive future sales and earnings."

What's he talking about? Well, earlier this month, the brand announced that they would be consolidating their various Macy's regional divisions into three primary groups: Macy's East, Macy's West, and Macy's South. Within each of those divisions will be 20 "districts," each consisting of about 10 stores, governed by a new workforce of about 250 managers. The thought is that by having more management in more localized markets, the company will be able to make much more specific marketing appeals to its consumers, tailoring everything to their particularly tastes, whims, or geographic proclivities. Of course, that consolidation also includes the downsizing of some 2,550 jobs across the previous geo-divisions. More on that, here.

 

Oh, and also, Macy's announced that it will no longer be reporting same-store monthly sales figures, which, you know, are the clearest indicator of a retailer's performance inbetween earnings reports. Oh, and another thing, they're not going to be giving anymore estimates about sales and earnings for the future. That certainly sounds like an underwhelming vote of confidence in the company's ability to perform.

"In total, 2007 was a year of significant strategic progress," added Lundgren, in a statement. "We successfully launched exclusive new brands such as Martha Stewart Collection, invested for continued growth in the direct-to-consumer business, expanded Bloomingdale's, changed our corporate name, and launched a breakthrough new marketing approach under the umbrella of 'The Magic of Macy's'."

You probably remember that particular campaign from the holiday season, when you were besieged by a commercial with a melee of images of Donald Trump, Sean Combs, Martha Stewart (who almost seemed warm and whom we were also relieved to see unshackled from KMart), and mental eyesore Jessica Simpson hawking their products sold through the mega-retailer.

Lay your chips down, folks, we're betting on Martha as the sales driving leader in the full collection category this year. Hopefully, for Macy's she'll be "a good thing."

Financial Desk: Despite Q4 Weakness, Nordstrom Rolls on With Seven New Stores for 2008

Another sign that the luxury market might be buckling, Nordstrom reported declines across the balance sheet for the fourth quarter.

Net sales dropped 4.4% to $2.51 billion for the quarter ended Feb. 2, and net earnings declined 8.6% to $212 million, or 92 cents a share. For the full year, sales increased 3% to $8.83 billion, and earnings rose 5.5% to $715 million, or $2.88 per share.

The declines were caused, in part, by a "trailing effect" from the previous quarter, according to President Blake Nordstrom's statements in a conference call.

"[That trailing effect] coupled with the softer environment impacted our bottom line," he added, noting that the first half of the year had been, "in terms of sales," successful. "As we look ahead to 2008 and beyond, we are focused on executing our long-term strategy of increasing market share with our core customers by offering great service and the best merchandise the market has to offer. We are in a position of strength financially, which allows us to take advantage of opportunities that may come our way, as well as weather any current challenges that we may face."

Increasing market share with  core customers, boosting service and merchandise, eh? Seems that's exactly what Milton Pedraza, of The Luxury Institute told us was precisely the strategy the luxury market needed to combat the pending/current recession.

While the year-end increases do support Nordstrom's contention of his company's strong financial position, we have to think that moving ahead with the retailer's growth plan is unwise at this time. Nordstrom plans to open seven more stores this year—in Honolulu, Hawaii; Burlington, Mass.; Clinton Township, Mich.; Thousand Oaks, Calif.; Indianapolis, Ind.; Pittsburgh, Pa.; and Naples, Fla.—in addition to the 165,000 square foot store it opened Feb. 15 in Aventura, Fla.

No notes about changes to their marketing plan that we've seen yet, but those cartoonish inserts they've been running for a while now certainly haven't made us want to shop there.

The Big Bang: J.C. Penney's Biggest Launch Ever for "American Living," (And Why It's Smarter Than You Skeptics Might Think!)

J.C. Penney is really going whole hog with the
marketing push behind its new "American Living" collection!

While we hear a lot of "biggest push ever" b.s. from marketers, this one's the real deal:

-First TV spot hits Univision, in Spanish, for the "Premio Lo Nuestro a la Musica Latina" Awards, on Feb. 21
-Mass-market TV spot to make full debut during the Oscars, on Feb. 24
-Month-long run on prime-time TV slots
-A 60-second in-cinema spot at an estimated 14,000 theaters for all PG and PG-13 features
-Print campaign in the usual barrage of consumer pubs (see example, right).
-Direct mail with 12 different specialty catalogs
-In-store promotions, including fixtures and themed uniforms for employees
-AmericanLiving.com dedicated Web site.
-Creative shot by Bruce Weber (sufficeth to say, ain't cheap people!)

The brand and the campaign, both by Polo Ralph Lauren's Global Brand Concepts group, will be the biggest in the company's history, according to CMO Mike Boylson. The imaging is meant as an emotional play that connects consumers with images of Americana and family.

While some may doubt the strategy of going big during a time when consumers feel like they're going bust—and Boylson said he's heard more than a few naysayers—the strategy actually works in their favor, according to Patricia Pao, of The Pao Principle, New York, who told me that J.C. Penney could potentially triple their media spend value given that they will be one of the few people making a real push.

And even though she felt the price points for the collection—a broad swath covering $24-$500 goods—might be a bit too aspirational for the times, WSL Strategic Retail's Candace Cortlett told me that the big campaign is still a good investment in the brand.

"[This effort] will live beyond the hard times," she said. "The worst thing to do is to put all of the energy into developing a brand like this and then just letting it sit on the shelf. That was Sears’ mistake when they got the Land’s End franchise."

Check out the full story here.

Research Desk: Prestige Beauty Sales Grew 2% in 2007, Sez NPD

The prestige beauty industry—that's the expensive,
marquee stuff y'all—gussied itself up in 2007, according to a report from NPD Group, Port Washington, N.Y.

The category grew 2% overall to $8.9 billion in sales for 2007. Leading that charge were the makeup and skincare categories, where sales rose 4% to $3.4 billion and $2.5 billion, respectively. Makeup still leads in market share, now at 38% of the total beauty biz, just ahead of fragrance, which controls 33% of sales, and skincare, which gets 28% of the cut at $1.2 billion in sales.

And growth in a prestige market despite The Recession! Though, we can't say we're surprised, because, after all, even in the worst of times we'll plunk down the cash to prevent the world from seeing our wrinkly, blemished, pale faces, or smelling our "natural" scent. And hey, if it's got a designer name on the box, all the better! If we're not paying more than $100 for the goods, we usually chalk it up to a normal indulgence, especially when it lasts for a year (Happy Valentine's Day to our very dresser-top fave Prada Amber Pour Homme!).

Seems NPD's senior beauty analyst, Karen Grant, agrees.

"During challenging economic times in 2007, the prestige beauty industry managed to rise above the negatives," said Grant in the report. "Women and men are still willing to spend money on products that make them look and feel better."

However what did surprise us were the rankings of the top fragrances, for both male and female shoppers (keep in mind that females actually buy a greater percentage of men's fragrance than men do):

1. Acqua Di Gio (Giorgio Armani)
2. Beautiful (Estée Lauder)
3. Coco Mademoiselle (Chanel)
4. Chanel No. 5 (Chanel)
5. Cashmere Mist (Donna Karan)

OK, ok, Beautiful isn't a surprise, nor is Chanel No. 5, those fragrances are so classic they're a lock for the top spots. Coco Mademoiselle is an interesting one, since we were sure that everyone was like sooo over their current ad girl, Keira Knightley, but it's obvs just us who thinks she just a poor-man's version of Penelope Cruz with a perma-pout. And Cashmere Mist? We have to think some of those sales were a case of mistaken identity. We've never touched the stuff but the bottle looks like an exotic sex toy.

But the real shocker was No. 1: Acqua di Gio. Seriously!? Acqua di Gio!? We thought that fragrance was hot like, four years ago when we were having our Año Español and all the boys (including us) were awash in that sweet, citrus-y smell. But that was four years ago!

"It's just an easy fragrance, a good juice that easy and likable and that no one is going to hate you for gifting," Grant told us, admitting even she had been surprised that the fragrance had stayed on top for the past several years. "Men can wear it to work and to the club, and women like it, which you know is the number one factor for the guys. It isn't overpowering and its versatile. They've hit on a formula that is working on both the mass and prestige levels."

Grant also told us that a new ad campaign, by parent L'Oréal's agency Publicis, that offered new imagery for the popular fragrance, was well timed to continue the momentum of the brand last year, swapping out male model Larry Scott with Lars Burmeister (pictured above, with product), and bowing a new TV campaign, which you can view, to your water-dripping-on-abs delight, below.

Financial Desk: Pre-Announcement of Dismal Q4 and Fiscal 2007 for Liz Claiborne

Ruht-roh...

That's the feeling we get from the latest announcement from the financial office over at Liz Claiborne.

A pre-announcement of Q4 and full-year 2007 earnings forecasts greater-than-expected profit losses prior to the official report due out Feb. 27.

Bear with us as we go through the details. It gets foggier than Pynchon prose at times as you roll down the balance sheet expectations.

For the fourth quarter, the company said it now expects losses of $0.90 to $1.00 per share, with earnings per share of $0.15 to $0.25, compared to earnings  of $0.71 per share in the year-earlier period. Net sales for the fourth quarter are projected at $1.21 billion, down 3% from the prior year.

For the full year, expects losses of $0.25 to $0.35 per share, on the assumption of posting earnings of $1.25 to $1.35 for 2007, a serious dip from earnings of $2.46 a share in 2006. Net sales for 2007 are estimated at about $4.6 billion, down 1.4% from 2006.

It's important to call out that the projects don't include any impact from the sale of the Ellen Tracy brand today, which went to Radius Partners LLC, Westport, Conn., for $27.3 million (plus up to $15 million more, depending on how the brand performs over the next four years). That adds some dollars to the coffers that could help offset some of the expected weakness.

But it's equally important to remember that the  projections don't include the impact of costs associated with the company's efforts to "streamline operations," the shuttering of some of its cosmetics brands, as well as what appear to be the weakened status of those 16 brands the company had under review.

But well, let's let CEO William McComb sort it out. Here's what he had to say.

"While 2007 marked a very difficult period, we see the fundamental in this company heading in the right direction," McComb said in a statement. "This conservative view we are taking in our 2008 guidance-specifically around our Partnered Brands performance—is only prudent given the challenging retail environment."

He also added that "markdown pressure" hit those Partnered Brands—which include Liz Claiborne and Dana Buchman—hard during the quarter, but that they're going on the offensive with recent design deals for Claiborne that include Isaac Mizrahi tackling the women's end and John Bartlett handling men's, as well as licensing Dana Buchman out to Kohl's. For more on that, see here.

On a positive note, it looks like Juicy Couture is doing well, with Q4 comp store sales expected to be up 25%, while the brand jump 23% in sales for the full year. The Lucky brand remains flat against year (hey, it's better than being in the red, people!), though Mexx was down 3% for the quarter and 2% for the year.

Updated: Financial Desk: LVMH Closes Out 2007 with Multi-Category Growth and Teaser For New Vuitton Campaign

Another positive luxury earnings report, now with some
straight talk about how 2008 will shape up, comes across
our desk this morning from Paris-based juggernaut LVMH.

The company, which markets a wide range of luxury products, posted sales gains across every category in its portfolio. In sum, company-wide revenues increased 8% to $24.1 billion, with profits climbing 12% to $5.2 billion for 2007.

While those gains are certainly commendable, Chairman and CEO Bernard Arnault didn't shy away from addressing some of the problems facing the U.S. market, though he was bullish on the company's prospects, given its higher-end clientele.

"It is true that the year is starting in a rather worrisome situation in terms of the economy and the financial markets in particular...[and] our analysis of the situation is that in 2008 we're likely to experience a degree of recession more or less important in the U.S. economy," Arnault said, in a conference call, though he added that January sales were in line with year-end performance for the company and noted that he believes the recession should only last one or two quarters into 2008, with market recovery by 2009.

"I believe that [the recession's] consequences on LVMH will be limited, weak, or even non-existent," Renault said. "In fact, the clientele that we are dealing with is far less affected than the rest of the economy by these short-term economic swings.  They have high purchasing power, located in a number of countries where the economic climate will be bouyant, even if there's a minor recession in the U.S."

Returning back to the quarterly results, of particular interest to us were the following revenue boosts: sales of fashion and leather goods  grew 8% to $8.24 billion, at current exchange rates, in 2007; the perfumes and cosmetics business also grew 8%, with sales of roughly $4 billion; while the watches and jewelry group posted a 13% sales gain, at $1.2 billion.

The company, in a statement, attributed increased revenues in the fashion category to strong performance from its landmark Louis Vuitton brand, as well as "growing success" at Fendi, in addition to solid performances from Marc Jacobs, Givenchy and Loewe. The boost in perfumes and cosmetics came on the back of its popular Christian Dior fragrance line, particularly the J'Adore, Midnight Poison and Fahrenheit 32 scents. Strength in the watches and jewelry category was led by TAG Heuer, which the  company said showed strong progress across all of its markets (for more on TAG's marketing efforts, see previous article, here).

According to statements by Antonio Belloni, deputy managing director, in a conference call, the fragrance departments at Givenchy and Kenzo will be rolling out "aggressive programs," including a renewed advertising campaign for the female market, and a forthcoming men's launch for both brands. No further details were provided.

And Yves Carcelle, president of the fashion and leather goods division, alluded to an evolution of the brand's current campaign with Mikhail Gorbachev . In the call, Carcelle mentioned a "Life After Gorbachev" initiative that would be unveiled "in a few weeks' time."

"For the first time, indeed, in the history of the luxury industry, there will be an audio-visual film which will be used both on TV, in theaters and on the Internet," Carcelle said during the call, describing the spot as "90-seconds of pure emotion." Hmmm... We'll definitely be staying tuned on that one.

Anecdotally, it would appear that Gorbachev campaign (as well as the spots featuring French Actress Catherine Deneuve, both pictured, above) has been successful. I've heard a vast majority of positive reaction to those spots, and, given the pending recession, that campaign isn't a bad strategy for the U.S. market. After all, only the super-moneyed, who are likely the age contemporaries of Gorbachev and Deneuve, will be able to afford those never-marked-down handbags if the economy really gets bad.

Financial Desk: Polo Ralph Lauren Sales Climb 13% in Q3

Looks like Polo Ralph Lauren will follow Coach in refuting
those analyst downgrades last month.

The New York-based fashion house posted a 13% increase in sales, at $1.2 billion for the third quarter ended Dec. 29, though net income rose a scant 2% to $112.7 million, or $1.08 per diluted share, over the same period. Polo also upped its fiscal year-end earnings guidance, now anticipating earnings per share in the lower end of a $3.64-$3.74 range. The prior guidance has been $3.50 to $3.60.

"Even in the context of macroeconomic uncertainty, our strategies remain intact," said Roger Farah, president and CEO, in a statement, an obvious allusion to fears over the pending U.S. recession's impact on the luxury market (for more on that, see my previous article, "Mass Affluents Retreat En Masse," here).

"Our company offers the highest quality, aspirational merchandise across the entire consumer spectrum," added Ralph Lauren, chairman and CEO, in a statement. "The diversity of our brand portfolio, the strength of our lifestyle positioning,  the talent of our creative and managerial teams and our increasingly global reach are enviable assets that position us well for long-term growth."

It's the last part of that statement that has gotten us to thinking: Has Polo really beaten the U.S. recession?

The company does not break out its sales for the U.S. region, in particular. No real surprise there, many global companies shy away from doing so. But there were some other indicators that have us scratching our head a bit.

"In the past few years, we have made significant long-term investments in our international business with the expansion of Europe, product categories such as Lauren and childrenswear, and channel expansion with our own retail stores and e-commerce," said Farah, in a statement. "Our more recent efforts include the repositioning of Japan and the development of accessories. While the recent decline in consumer spending presents near-term challenges, we continue to invest in our strategic initiatives as we believe they are long-term drivers of shareholder value."

So it would seem that Polo is hitching its horse, at least in part, to the international and e-commerce markets. Interesting, particularly in light of the conversation I had with luxury analyst Milton Pedraza (of The Luxury Institute, New York) a while back. Pedraza told me that, in the wake of the recession,  luxury brands had three main points of attack to weather the storm: focusing only on the super-rich who would be effectively immune from an economic recession, focusing on international markets to provide global relief for near-term losses in the U.S., and beefing up their online presence to accomplish that global reach.

Seems like Polo is hitting two out of three now. Of course, it would seem that the broad array of price points the brand offers might also provide some recession-ready padding.

Still no information on what role, if any, advertising and marketing played in the quarterly results. Will have to wait on that for later. Can't imagine they'd have much impact, since they've been fairly boring and cookie-cutter across the various collections. Enjoy a recent spot, above.

Polo spent $57 million on measured media advertising in the U.S. market for 2006, and spent $58 million through November 2007, per Nielsen Monitor-Plus.

Financial Desk: H&M Powers Through Another Impressive Quarter

H&M continues its charge through the fashion world
with another strong earnings season.

Per the company's quarterly, and annual, earnings report released this morning, fourth quarter sales grew 17% to $3.57 billion in domestic currency (at current exchange rates), and profits jumped 14% to roughly $975 million.

Though the company did seem to feel a similar slump in the month of December, where sales decreased by 10% over the previous year, sales through Jan. 29 (one has to marvel at the efficiency that can include sales figures from as recently as two days ago in such a report!), sales have increased 16%. Results for the U.S. market, specifically, were not provided.

Full-year results for fiscal 2006/2007 were similarly positive, with sales climbing 15% to $12.3 billion, and profits resting solidly at the $3.0 billion mark, an increase of 21%.

The company plans to control roughly 190 stores for the next fiscal year, focusing its efforts in 2008 on building up markets in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Oman. Stores are expected to open in the Russian market in 2009.

The retailer is currently gearing up for the release of its "Fashion Against AIDS" collection, which bows tomorrow. The group of t-shirts, tank tops and hooded sweaters were designed in conjunction with Designers Against AIDS (DAA) and music industry celebrities including Rihanna, Timbaland, Rufus Wainwright (pictured in the spot above), Scissor Sisters, and Ziggy Marley, and Good Charlotte, among others. Twenty-five percent of sales from the line, priced at roughly $16-$40 (at current exchange) will go to various HIV/AIDS prevention projects at non-profits worldwide.

In 2006, H&M spent $17 million on measured media advertising in the U.S. market, and through November 2007, has spent $18 million, per Nielsen Monitor-Plus.

Couture Contest: Who Will Be Wearing These On The Red Carpet?

Let's stuff those bad dreams about The Recession for a moment and take a gander at the surreality of couture week! While more film is shuttling in over at Style.com, it's been a fun romp over the past few days through the high-concept runways of Christian Dior (which I've dubbed the "Baltimore's Miss Crabs" Collection), Chanel, Christian Lacroix, and Armani Privé.

But I guess we're never too far from bad dreams, are we? After all, while the ladies attending these shows are part of that rarified market that will buy whatever they want whenever they want it (cue the "Lola" theme), the reality is that the shows are little more than a big marketing stunt to drum up interest in the storied houses, and their designers.

For the most part, the only time we'll see a couture gown will be at a Costume Institute retrospective at the Metropolitan Museum of Art, or, of course on the red carpet for big ticket events like the Oscars. But wait, the Oscars might not even happen this year, meaning that there potentially could be the elimination of millions of consumer impressions for these brands across the loads of magazines and TV stations that cover this stuff. The horror!

But let's assume that the actresses will be ticking their way across that crimson spread, and that Ryan Seacrest will be there to catch it all (with a bunch of quips sure to prompt catty "outings" across the blogosphere for the day after). Who do you think can pull off these tricky designer looks? Drop your submissions in the comments box or shoot me a plug at enewman@brandweek.com. Happy guessing!

Though I would guess Privé is a lock for Katie Holmes in her next near-comatose red carpet/"news" interview gig. If you haven't seen, check it out here. "Mad Money," indeed!

             ARMANI PRIVÉ                    CHRISTIAN LACROIX                 CHRISTIAN DIOR

Financial Desk: Coach Fights Back with Q2 Growth and Upped Guidance

Despite ominous downgrades from a Goldman Sachs analyst
last week, Coach seems to be  coming out swinging
following an impressive second quarter in which the leather goods company posted increases across top and bottom line ledgers.

Earnings climbed 11% to $252.3 million, or 70 cents a share, for quarter ended Dec. 29, while sales jumped a strong 21% to $805.6 million. Gross profits, however, slid almost 174 basis points to roughly 75% of sales, and inventories jumped 20% to $300.7 million.

Those latter slides might be attributable to the current luxury market weakness as consumers tighten their purse strings—for more on that, check out my "Mass Affluents Retreat En Masse" story from earlier this week—which seems to be supported also by Chairman and CEO Lew Frankfort's (pictured, above, right) statements about weakness in comp store sales.

"Specifically, North American comparable store sales were impacted by weak mall traffic and an unexpected decline in average transaction size," he said, in a statement. "The macro environment appeared to cause a shift by many consumers to lower price point items. Conversion remained very strong, offsetting the bulk of weakness."

Looking ahead, the company actually upped its earnings and sales guidances, with revenues pegged at $3.15 billion (a 20% boost), and share value of $2.06 (a 22% gain). Still, given the challenges in the U.S. environment, Frankfort said that the company would remain cautious in providing forecasted estimates of comp store sales—which he added represent roughly 20% of overall retail sales for the back half of the fiscal year.

Another way to offset any slowdown in the U.S. market might be the brand's boosted efforts in China, where it will open a new global flagship store in Hong Kong this summer.

"This flagship will significantly enhance the Coach brand and is consistent with our strategy of raising awareness and aggressively growing market share with the Chinese luxury  consumer," Frankfort said, in a statement. "Clearly, Greater China has the potential, during hte next few years, to become the third major market for Coach, following North America and Japan."

International markets currently represent about 25% of Coach brand sales.

No word yet on any ad changes at the company, though Frankfort emphasized that the challenging retail climate has the company "embarking on a comprehensive review of all ways in which the brand touches the consumer," and said the new positioning will become more clear as the company shifts into the 2009 fiscal year.

The brand boosted its ad spend by roughly 31% during Jan.-Nov. 2007, growing to $13.2 million, versus $10.1 million from Jan.-Nov. 2006, per Nielsen Monitor-Plus.

The Luxury Market, The Recession and What Marketers Can Do About It

If you haven't checked it out already—and it seems many of you have since it's o ne of the most popular stories on our site this week—give a quick gloss to my story about mass affluent consumers retreating from the luxury market as we head into what analysts and the papers seems to be projecting as a certain American recession. Read the full story here. 

Raúl Martinez, CEO and  executive creative director over at AR New York (they've done worked for brands including Salvatore Ferragamo, Dolce & Gabbana, Yves Saint Laurent, Versace and the most recent ads for Valentino, post the namesake's well-publicized adieu, pictured at right) seemed to sum it up nicely.

“I think the downturn in the luxury-goods market is now trickling down to Europe and it’s been a shock to many over there," he told me. "For a while there’s been a sort of comfort-level that luxury brands have enjoyed. Consumer are cautious and luxury brands are in alert mode.”

It's an interesting time for sure, and many of the analysts and consultants I spoke to for this story told me that they see several key points emerging from the luxury market's stumble over the past few weeks:

1. That affected luxury brands were taken by surprise given that they underestimated how much of their growth over the past five years had been fueled by these mass affluent consumers;

2. That the first area where tightened budgets might force some changes will be in the marketing and advertising departments. (This is, of course, a general market theory as well, and can be extrapolated to areas far beyond the luxury market in specific.;

3. And that some of those tightened ad dollars could increasingly go towards online campaigns, which offer greater ROI than the traditional media (no big secret to anyone) and also have the additional benefit of global reach that could prompt sales in foreign markets, which are still a thriving area for luxury goods.

However, the problem is that luxury marketers will most likely not be making quick, dramatic changes to their traditional media buys.

As Pam Danziger, the head of Unity Marketing, a luxury consultancy based in Stevens, Pa., told me: "The idea that magazine and TV advertising will go away is ridiculous, but what will become more important is having a better understanding of the consumer they're looking at. It's becoming much more vertical...with some of these niche magazines providing more connection to [the luxury sector's] real target market."

This trend seemed to be confirmed by Jason Binn, CEO of Niche Media, New York. Unless you're part of the uber-wealthy for whom these magazines are as ubiquitous as McDonald's golden arches are for the rest of us, you've probably seen his titles—among them Gotham, Hamptons, Ocean Drive and Los Angeles Confidential—in the high dollar rooms you booked through the company for a recent conference in Vegas. I know that I never stay at The Hotel on my own dime.

Per Danizger's assertion, Binn's group offers luxury marketers access to the consumers who will buy their products regardless of recessionary woes, the kind of folks, who, to paraphrase a WWD headline a few days ago, are more concerned with getting their high heels wet waiting in a drizzle outside of Chanel's couture show, than they are about this "thing" called a recession.

The titles are distributed to a consumer base in which roughly 50% have annual household incomes of over $250,000, as well as liquid assets and homes each valued at over $1 million. The books are also distributed through Net Jets, the private jet company owned by Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway, where Binn says he reaches customers with an average net worth of $25 million. 

"[Luxury brands] are relying on us more than ever to vertically integrate their products and their services to these wealth markets that we’re targeting with these very unique readers and consumers that we have,” Binn told me. “The [vast majority of] mainstream consumer magazines can’t really deliver those kind of  economic demographics to these brands.”

Though he did acknowledge that luxury marketers were shifting some dollars to more non-traditional media, for his part, Martinez said that it's a time when these brands need to maintain a consistency in their messaging.

"At a time like this its more important than ever to communicate with a singular voice and a singular vision...I think the worst thing a brand can do is to deviate from who they truly are, because over the long-term consumer confidence will be lost," Martinez told me. "One thing I think we have seen over the last number of years is a movement away from the more emotional creative and towards a more product-centric messaging. More dollars are being applied to Resort and Pre-Fall which are becoming true collections in their own right, where wearability becomes much bigger.”

Looks like for now, we'll have to play a game of wait and see concerning how the ad market will change for luxury players. Saks Fifth Avenue, for example, has already said that they're looking into doing ads in foreign magazines to grab some more tourism dollars, something the luxe retailer has never done before, and soon they'll start offering international shipping on their e-commerce Web site.

Meanwhile, I'll be comparison shopping the Vogue ad pages to see if any of this media shift stuff pans out. Oh, and Vanity Fair, you're on my list too.