Fashion Notebook

Financial Desk: Sales Down, But Earnings Up 40% for Gap, as Retailer Cuts Marketing Budget

We hate to see this, because it means less creative, but cutting its marketing expenses was one tactic that helped Gap bolster its bottom line, even as sales continued their slide into the red.

In addition to other cost cutting measures that included reduced remodeling efforts for Old Navy stores, and a $15 million pre-tax earnings benefit, Sabrina Simmons, Gap Inc.’s EVP/CFO, said in an earnings call late Thursday that “lower marketing expenses” also helped lift earnings 40% to $249 million, for the quarter ended May 3.

So where was the blood spilled in the marketing department?

Well, ad spend dropped almost 18% from the year-earlier period, closing at $93 million for the quarter. The $21 million reduction was due in large part to the absence of TV spots for the Gap brand, Simmons said. However, she added that shareholders and analysts shouldn’t expect such cuts to continue.

“Unlike this first quarter, we expect our marketing expenses in the second quarter to be fairly similar to last year’s level of $88 million,” she said.

Yay! Maybe we'll have some more fun creative to look forward to this summer, when we're all staying indoors and running the air conditioners to escape from global warming. That is, though of us who have TV. (We're luddites, y'all, except when we visit our wife to watch rounds and rounds of Lifetime Movies.)

While earnings might have been a bright spot, and showed the beleaguered firm capable of trimming costs for the benefit of its investors, sales trends showed signs of trouble amid an economic slowdown that has the whole retail industry reeling. Comp store sales at Gap North America dropped 7% for the quarter to $976 million, and Old Navy posted an 18% decrease, dropping to $1.2 billion in sales.

If you don't have your financial party hat on, folks, that means, pretty much, "things sucked  over the past three months." Which is too bad for Old Navy, because we, (and the wife), LOVE those new ads. It's like Gossip Girl meets Fred Flare's Crafternoon Delights. Seriously, some fierce-ass dresses that might have the retailer beating Forever 21 at its own game. Seriously, if you haven't seen these ads (also screen-grabbed, above, right), they just might change the way you view Old Navy. They did for us.

Meanwhile, on the richer side of things, Banana Republic's comp store sales dropped 4% to $538 million and Glenn Murphy, chairman and CEO,  said that the brand had been affected by challenging traffic trends, and an “uncharacteristically promotional” environment at the apparel chain’s direct competitors. Thus far, Banana Republic has avoided playing the promotional card to drive sales.

“We’re watching the competitive landscape very closely,” added Murphy. “And [we] are prepared to make the necessary adjustments to drive traffic if this promotional level that we are seeing currently was to continue.”

Yay SALES that are sure to come. Because, honey, that's a brand for the aspirational rich, not the real rich, and we ain't getting any more money any time soon. That is, until Obama is in the White House, but we don't want to get political. We just want good health care, education, and leadership that will get us out of this war, y'know, in less than 100 years. But we digress.

Net sales for the company dropped about 5% to $3.38 billion for the first quarter. The company has maintained its guidance for fiscal 2008 earnings per share to fall in the range of $1.20 to $1.27.

Breaking News: Commes Des Garcons' Rei Kawakubo To Design Next Guest Collection for H&M

Now this is one that actually has us a little hot under the collar.   

Lagerfeld, sure. Viktor & Rolf, cute. Cavalli, sexy. Stella McCartney, feh. Rei Kawakubo, what?!

That's right, empress of whimsical Japanese luxe label Comme des Garcons, Rei Kawakubo, has announced that she will be the featured artiste on H&M's next designer collaboration. The collection launches first in early November, to coincide with the opening of H&M's second Tokyo store. In the following days, it will roll out to doors in the rest of H&M's global markets.

The collection will include apparel for men, women and children, as well as accessories and a unisex fragrance. This certainly is a much more expanded program than the fast fashion retailer has done in the past, and it would seem that the growth of product offering owes everything to the freshness that Kawakubo can bring to the brand.

Much like the Japanese designers Issey Miyake and Yohji Yamamoto, with whom she formed the Japanese triumvirate that defined much of the new wave fashion of 1980s American culture, Kawakubo's designs are structurally intense, and often include popular cultural references in a rather Pop Art motif (such as a series of men's suits she rolled out a in spring 2006 back that featured the iconic Rolling Stone's lips n' tongue logo splayed across the fabric). She was also the mentor for another fashion avant-gartist whose star appears to be ascending these days, Junya Wantanabe. For a look at some of her work, check the photo above.

That said, we're so interested to see what she turns out when she's not using high-tech fabrics or restrained by price points that might tie in some of her more flights of fantasy designs. As we see it, this could be a love it or hate it collection, and we just hope that the quality matches up to the buzz that will no doubt follow this collection's launch. We remember hearing that there were some issues with the clothes that Cavalli put out on the racks, not to mention those of the McCartney collection (said one of our friends, at the time: "I walked out with a cute dress that turned into a pile of buttons and thread after two weeks.").

Anyways, as always, here's the mutual lovefest that always follows these kinds of announcements.

"I have always been interested in the balance between creation and business," said Kawakubo, in a statement. "It is a dilemma, although creation for me has always been the first priority. It is a fascinating challenge to work with H&M since it is a chance to take the dilemma to its extreme and try to solve it."

See what we mean? Seems like old Kawakubo might be prepping us for the design vs. quality vs. price issue we outlined above. Less avant garde, but better quality, or more envelope pushing and delicate? Again, will be so interesting to see her "solution" as she calls it.

And now from H&M's creative advisor Margareta van den Bosch (great name, non?!):

"Rei Kawakubo has been at the top of our wish list for a long time and we are thrilled that she has chosen to collaborate with us," said van den Bosch, in a statement. "We have tremendous respect for Kawakubo's fashion philosophy of questioning fashion's ingrained patterns, and admire her artistic approach to design. We are particularly excited that the collection will be launched in Japan, Kawakubo's native country, at the same time as the launch of our new store there."

Ok, so we'll have to stay tuned, but we think this could be good news. It will drive some buzz—as these collections have done in past incarnations—for both the designer and the retailer, exposing the younger, less monied set to Kawakubo's work and perhaps building brand affinity there, while probably giving H&M a much fresher and more high-concept street reputation for the risk they're taking in bringing her in.

We'll be checking back in November to see what the product looks like!

Lessons in Branding: Making Sense of Louis Vuitton's First TV Spot, "Where Are You Going?"

If you haven't seen, first check out the 90-second spot from Louis Vuitton, "Where are you going?", the brand's first-ever TV ad, teased in the most recent earnings report. Creative per Ogilvy, Paris.

OK, what to make of this? First, our impression:

This feels a lot longer than it is. The existential question—"What is a journey?"—is explored through some pretty engaging imagery, and we have to admit, we watched all the way through to the end, and probably would have done the same had we seen it on TV (we don't have cable folks, we read). It recalls the print campaign, featuring Catherine Deneuve at a train station, lots of fog and smoke, revealing and concealing the lensman's subjects. And the soundtrack gets us in the mood for an Alejandro Iñárritu film. We're pleased to see that we're not bogged down with a bunch of branded product, and indeed feel that the spot makes an emotional connection. It's really a beautiful spot in a world full of uglies, and doesn't come off as pandering or offensive.

But the problem we've got, ultimately, is the branding part. We have to feel that people for whom "The journey is life itself," probably aren't the same ones who want to shell out thousands for a suitcase. In fact, they'd probably spend the money that a Vuitton steamer trunk would cost on a fairly comfortable trip to Africa or Asia. Unless, of course, they're among those who prefer custom Vuitton luggage, and travel to India on a half-spiritual journey to connect a dysfunctional family (er, in case you hadn't already caught on, we're talking about The Darjeeling Limited here). So the message seems to be a disconnect with the product,  n'est pas?

And, now, point-counterpoint from two recent critiques:

From BryanBoy.com (AKA the twink blogger who actually got Marc Jacobs to create a handbag named after him): "I *LOVE* the commercial! It's quite moving and touching. In fact, the message is crystal clear to me. IMO, the folks at luxury powerhouse Louis Vuitton went back and paid homage to their roots: the art of travel. Afterall, travel is an integral part of the brand's DNA. Nowhere in this commercial you'll find the usual flash flash "bling" stereotype the average Joe associates with Vuitton. I think it's a nice little  flashback to the bygone era where only the traveling set knows about the historical and cherished by millions monogram."

From Pam Danziger (of luxury analysis firm, Unity Marketing, Stevens, Pa.): "It's atmospheric and evocative, yes, but LV has fallen into a trap that can catch many heritage-rich luxury brands, and that is thinking that brand image is the ultimate reason why people buy. In my research into the mindset of the luxury consumers, brand image plays a supporting, not a leading role in why people buy.  When affluent consumers buy a luxury brand, first and foremost they want outstanding quality.  Image may be a primary motivator for the 'aspirational' consumers who want to put on the trappings of a luxury life they have not yet attained, but not for the affluent shopper who has already made it. It is even questionable that the company's target consumers will get the brand identity message that is this commercial's primary objective.  When I viewed this ad, all I had were questions, but no answers.  'What is a journey?' is the question poised in this commercial, but the answer about why I need the Louis Vuitton brand to accompany me on my journey was left unanswered."

Anyhow, at least the ad has people talking, which is always good in this biz. Of course, Vuitton doing its first TV ad would naturally have every one talking. What remains to be seen is, as Danziger notes in her review of the spot, whether or not consumers (and critics) will go from talking to buying.

Research Desk: NPD Study Finds Consumers Not Changing Where They Shop, But Increasingly Looking For Sales

So there's good and bad news in a report released today from NPD Group, Port Washington, N.Y.

First, the good news. While 79% of the survey's 772 respon- dents felt that we are either in, or headed for, an economic recession, the majority aren't really changing where they shop given economic woes.

According to the study, "Fast Checks: Consumers Speak Out on the U.S. Economy," 55% of respondents said that today's economic conditions had "No impact" on where they shop for products. Meanwhile, 26% said that the economy has had "little impact" on where they shop, meaning that they'd changed on or two of the retailers from which they previously shopped. Another 15% said that they have changed "many" of the retailers they shop, while only 4% said that the economy has impacted their buying habits so drastically that they've changed all of the retailers they used to shop.

"Even with all the media attention on the economy, consumers still seem to be focused on their needs and desires," said Marshal Cohen, NPD's chief industry analyst, in a statement. "Consumers are tuned into news about our economy, but they aren't so quick to change what they are doing, including where they shop."

So knowing that the majority of shoppers have experienced either no impact, or very little impact, to their where they buy goods should have retailers breathing a sigh of relief, particularly after a rough round of earnings, right? Well, sort of.

The study also found that consumers are increasingly looking for promotional events to help keep costs down in the shopping cart. According to the survey, 50% of respondents said that they were now more likely to take advantage of store sales than they were six months ago. Of those polled, 38% said that they would be more likely to use coupons, and 8% said that they were more likely to participate in discount and/or membership programs.

According to Cohen, the results indicate that consumers are still going to be moving through retail doors, but that "the retailers are going to have to do more to get them."

"Certainly, promotional incentives of all kinds will be key, but how you market and communicate will help seal the deal," he added.

Financial Desk: Target Treads Water With Q4 Sales, Earnings Fall 8%

Another retailer, another disappointing earnings release. Seriously
folks,  we might just have to turn off our stock ticker for the rest of the day.

Target reports flat sales for the quarter ended Feb. 2, at $19.34 billion, though year-end sales grew 6.2% to $61.5 billion. What?! No sales losses!? This is great news!!

Well, it would be if Target hadn't also posted earnings of $1.03 billion, pr $1.23 per share, down 8.2% from last year. For the full year, the brand only moved the needle 2.2%, growing income to $2.85 billion, or $3.33 a share.

Below, the most obvious conclusions from Target's top dog.

"Our  financial performance in 2007 fell short of our expectations as the pace of sales and earnings slowed considerably in the second half of the year," said Bob Ulrich, chairman and CEO, in a statement. "As we enter 2008, we remain keenly focused on the disciplined execution of our core strategy, positioning Target to deliver improved financial results, even in the face of continue challenges in the current economic environment."

Unfortunately, Bob doesn't elaborate (and we're still waiting for the conference call where, you know, he actually might give us more color on this bland statement) so we don't know what kinds of tricks he's got up his corporate sleeves.

The report also makes no mention of the loss of designer Isaac Mizrahi to Liz Claiborne. Of course, Les Mizrahi's goods will still be sold through the retailer until the end of 2008, but nonetheless, his defection to Liz Claiborne was a major hit.

The designer's namesake collection for the brand brought in a reported $300 million in annual sales, in addition to have a sales-halo effect on the other brands in the store. Given his name and popularity, we get the feeling that it's going to be rather hard to replace him, and certainly the one-offs for the Go International collections which have featured up-and-coming designers probably won't make up the sales loss. Moreover, the collection might not pull in as much this year, given that Target isn't likely to promote it since they won't have the goods after the holidays.

For more on the Mizrahi switcheroo, check out our previous post, here.

Financial Desk: On Q4 and FY07 Losses, Macy's To Investors: "Hey, We're Not Doing As Badly As The Others!"

It's not a good day for retailers, with many reporting sales
and earnings slumps.

In its report this morning, Macy's appears to be hoping that they might at least look better than the competition.

"While a weakened economic environment led our industry to softer financial results than initially expected, Macy's, Inc. did outperform most of our primary competitors in the fourth quarter," said Terry Lundgren, chairman, president and CEO, in a statement. "We also generated significant cash flow despite weaker-than-expected sales trends. Going  forward, we are aggressively pursuing our recently announced market localization initiative to drive future sales and earnings."

What's he talking about? Well, earlier this month, the brand announced that they would be consolidating their various Macy's regional divisions into three primary groups: Macy's East, Macy's West, and Macy's South. Within each of those divisions will be 20 "districts," each consisting of about 10 stores, governed by a new workforce of about 250 managers. The thought is that by having more management in more localized markets, the company will be able to make much more specific marketing appeals to its consumers, tailoring everything to their particularly tastes, whims, or geographic proclivities. Of course, that consolidation also includes the downsizing of some 2,550 jobs across the previous geo-divisions. More on that, here.

 

Oh, and also, Macy's announced that it will no longer be reporting same-store monthly sales figures, which, you know, are the clearest indicator of a retailer's performance inbetween earnings reports. Oh, and another thing, they're not going to be giving anymore estimates about sales and earnings for the future. That certainly sounds like an underwhelming vote of confidence in the company's ability to perform.

"In total, 2007 was a year of significant strategic progress," added Lundgren, in a statement. "We successfully launched exclusive new brands such as Martha Stewart Collection, invested for continued growth in the direct-to-consumer business, expanded Bloomingdale's, changed our corporate name, and launched a breakthrough new marketing approach under the umbrella of 'The Magic of Macy's'."

You probably remember that particular campaign from the holiday season, when you were besieged by a commercial with a melee of images of Donald Trump, Sean Combs, Martha Stewart (who almost seemed warm and whom we were also relieved to see unshackled from KMart), and mental eyesore Jessica Simpson hawking their products sold through the mega-retailer.

Lay your chips down, folks, we're betting on Martha as the sales driving leader in the full collection category this year. Hopefully, for Macy's she'll be "a good thing."

Financial Desk: Despite Q4 Weakness, Nordstrom Rolls on With Seven New Stores for 2008

Another sign that the luxury market might be buckling, Nordstrom reported declines across the balance sheet for the fourth quarter.

Net sales dropped 4.4% to $2.51 billion for the quarter ended Feb. 2, and net earnings declined 8.6% to $212 million, or 92 cents a share. For the full year, sales increased 3% to $8.83 billion, and earnings rose 5.5% to $715 million, or $2.88 per share.

The declines were caused, in part, by a "trailing effect" from the previous quarter, according to President Blake Nordstrom's statements in a conference call.

"[That trailing effect] coupled with the softer environment impacted our bottom line," he added, noting that the first half of the year had been, "in terms of sales," successful. "As we look ahead to 2008 and beyond, we are focused on executing our long-term strategy of increasing market share with our core customers by offering great service and the best merchandise the market has to offer. We are in a position of strength financially, which allows us to take advantage of opportunities that may come our way, as well as weather any current challenges that we may face."

Increasing market share with  core customers, boosting service and merchandise, eh? Seems that's exactly what Milton Pedraza, of The Luxury Institute told us was precisely the strategy the luxury market needed to combat the pending/current recession.

While the year-end increases do support Nordstrom's contention of his company's strong financial position, we have to think that moving ahead with the retailer's growth plan is unwise at this time. Nordstrom plans to open seven more stores this year—in Honolulu, Hawaii; Burlington, Mass.; Clinton Township, Mich.; Thousand Oaks, Calif.; Indianapolis, Ind.; Pittsburgh, Pa.; and Naples, Fla.—in addition to the 165,000 square foot store it opened Feb. 15 in Aventura, Fla.

No notes about changes to their marketing plan that we've seen yet, but those cartoonish inserts they've been running for a while now certainly haven't made us want to shop there.

Old Navy Prez Dawn Robertson Exits, Wyatt Named Interim Prez

Just over a year after she joined as president at Old Navy,
Dawn Robertson is headed for the door.

Taking over in her absence, which went into effect yesterday, will be Tom Wyatt, president of Gap Inc's Outlet division. Also a relative newbie to the company, Wyatt joined in 2006 following a stints at Saks Fifth Avenue and  pres/CEO post at Cutter & Buck.

The company was scant on the details concerning Ms. Roberston's departure, saying that it was a mutual decision and proffering this curt quote from Gap Inc. CEO Glenn Murphy:

"I appreciate Dawn's hard work over the past 16 months and wish her all the best," Murphy said, in a statement. "We're fortunate to have someone of Tom Wyatt's caliber and experience, as both a president of our Outlet division and a former retail CEO to guide Old Navy during this transition."

For the full story, see here (via WWD).

The Big Bang: J.C. Penney's Biggest Launch Ever for "American Living," (And Why It's Smarter Than You Skeptics Might Think!)

J.C. Penney is really going whole hog with the
marketing push behind its new "American Living" collection!

While we hear a lot of "biggest push ever" b.s. from marketers, this one's the real deal:

-First TV spot hits Univision, in Spanish, for the "Premio Lo Nuestro a la Musica Latina" Awards, on Feb. 21
-Mass-market TV spot to make full debut during the Oscars, on Feb. 24
-Month-long run on prime-time TV slots
-A 60-second in-cinema spot at an estimated 14,000 theaters for all PG and PG-13 features
-Print campaign in the usual barrage of consumer pubs (see example, right).
-Direct mail with 12 different specialty catalogs
-In-store promotions, including fixtures and themed uniforms for employees
-AmericanLiving.com dedicated Web site.
-Creative shot by Bruce Weber (sufficeth to say, ain't cheap people!)

The brand and the campaign, both by Polo Ralph Lauren's Global Brand Concepts group, will be the biggest in the company's history, according to CMO Mike Boylson. The imaging is meant as an emotional play that connects consumers with images of Americana and family.

While some may doubt the strategy of going big during a time when consumers feel like they're going bust—and Boylson said he's heard more than a few naysayers—the strategy actually works in their favor, according to Patricia Pao, of The Pao Principle, New York, who told me that J.C. Penney could potentially triple their media spend value given that they will be one of the few people making a real push.

And even though she felt the price points for the collection—a broad swath covering $24-$500 goods—might be a bit too aspirational for the times, WSL Strategic Retail's Candace Cortlett told me that the big campaign is still a good investment in the brand.

"[This effort] will live beyond the hard times," she said. "The worst thing to do is to put all of the energy into developing a brand like this and then just letting it sit on the shelf. That was Sears’ mistake when they got the Land’s End franchise."

Check out the full story here.

Financial Desk: Abercrombie Posts Gains in Q4, But Notes Problems with Ruehl Line

Seems like Abercrombie's still on top, no pun intended. 

The New Albany, Ohio-based company posted an 8% sales increase during the fourth quarter, reaching $1.23 billion, and a 9% boost in net income, which registered at $216.7 million. For the full year, sales grew 13% to $3.75 billion, and profits rising 12.6% to $475.7 million.

While the picture was pretty glossy for the most part, the company did note a slowdown in sales for its Ruehl line, according to statement from CFO Michael Kramer, in a conference call.

"Unfortunately, sales productivity declined in the second half of 2007, as we began to anniversary markdowns  from fiscal 2006," said Kramer. "We anticipate lower sales productivity compared to last year through most of the first half of 2008 as we continue to anniversary the high markdown levels associated with Ruehl...Until we can establish Ruehl as a proven  concept we will moderate the pace of new store openings."

But despite that bad news, it was all sunshine and rainbows from Chairman/CEO Mike Jeffries.

"Our brands represent high productive, consistent businesses that are the result of an unyielding focus on merchandise quality and customer experience," said Jeffries, in a statement. "We continue to make strategic investments in the business to sustain and to enhance brand quality and to support future growth, both domestically and internationally."

Well, at least one of those "strategic investments" includes a $300 million initiative to remodel existing and construct new stores in 2008, as well as the brand's decision  to bring back its porn-a-log, A&F Quarterly, which has raised eyebrows in the past for its debatably pornographic imagery, not to mention its lack of actual clothes on lifestyle models. (Well, some things never change in that department.)

The new Quarterly has puzzled us for a while too, and not just for the obvious reasons everyone else seems to have cited which include, chiefly, that the guys aren't wearing underwear in their dungarees. What's gotten us stumped is why the campaign is still all-white.

While we admit we haven't seen  the most recent installment, the images on the brand's Web site include the same line up of idealized white models that were featured (although they have changed the bodies they're using, natch, since the shelf life of fashion models is relatively short if you're not of the Naomi ilk) when we were covering their legal discrimination troubles at El Diario/La Prensa (our Spanish-language journo days).

Check out a few shots from the current campaign, below.

Listen, we're no Pollyannas about this stuff, and are well aware that it's widespread issue in the industry, but after so many issues of its own discriminatory mess (remember those "Two Wongs Can Make it White" tees?) we just have to wonder why Abercrombie wouldn't just toss a bone out and include one minority in its prominent imaging? C'mon guys, help colorize our wank bank!

Research Desk: Prestige Beauty Sales Grew 2% in 2007, Sez NPD

The prestige beauty industry—that's the expensive,
marquee stuff y'all—gussied itself up in 2007, according to a report from NPD Group, Port Washington, N.Y.

The category grew 2% overall to $8.9 billion in sales for 2007. Leading that charge were the makeup and skincare categories, where sales rose 4% to $3.4 billion and $2.5 billion, respectively. Makeup still leads in market share, now at 38% of the total beauty biz, just ahead of fragrance, which controls 33% of sales, and skincare, which gets 28% of the cut at $1.2 billion in sales.

And growth in a prestige market despite The Recession! Though, we can't say we're surprised, because, after all, even in the worst of times we'll plunk down the cash to prevent the world from seeing our wrinkly, blemished, pale faces, or smelling our "natural" scent. And hey, if it's got a designer name on the box, all the better! If we're not paying more than $100 for the goods, we usually chalk it up to a normal indulgence, especially when it lasts for a year (Happy Valentine's Day to our very dresser-top fave Prada Amber Pour Homme!).

Seems NPD's senior beauty analyst, Karen Grant, agrees.

"During challenging economic times in 2007, the prestige beauty industry managed to rise above the negatives," said Grant in the report. "Women and men are still willing to spend money on products that make them look and feel better."

However what did surprise us were the rankings of the top fragrances, for both male and female shoppers (keep in mind that females actually buy a greater percentage of men's fragrance than men do):

1. Acqua Di Gio (Giorgio Armani)
2. Beautiful (Estée Lauder)
3. Coco Mademoiselle (Chanel)
4. Chanel No. 5 (Chanel)
5. Cashmere Mist (Donna Karan)

OK, ok, Beautiful isn't a surprise, nor is Chanel No. 5, those fragrances are so classic they're a lock for the top spots. Coco Mademoiselle is an interesting one, since we were sure that everyone was like sooo over their current ad girl, Keira Knightley, but it's obvs just us who thinks she just a poor-man's version of Penelope Cruz with a perma-pout. And Cashmere Mist? We have to think some of those sales were a case of mistaken identity. We've never touched the stuff but the bottle looks like an exotic sex toy.

But the real shocker was No. 1: Acqua di Gio. Seriously!? Acqua di Gio!? We thought that fragrance was hot like, four years ago when we were having our Año Español and all the boys (including us) were awash in that sweet, citrus-y smell. But that was four years ago!

"It's just an easy fragrance, a good juice that easy and likable and that no one is going to hate you for gifting," Grant told us, admitting even she had been surprised that the fragrance had stayed on top for the past several years. "Men can wear it to work and to the club, and women like it, which you know is the number one factor for the guys. It isn't overpowering and its versatile. They've hit on a formula that is working on both the mass and prestige levels."

Grant also told us that a new ad campaign, by parent L'Oréal's agency Publicis, that offered new imagery for the popular fragrance, was well timed to continue the momentum of the brand last year, swapping out male model Larry Scott with Lars Burmeister (pictured above, with product), and bowing a new TV campaign, which you can view, to your water-dripping-on-abs delight, below.

Financial Desk: Pre-Announcement of Dismal Q4 and Fiscal 2007 for Liz Claiborne

Ruht-roh...

That's the feeling we get from the latest announcement from the financial office over at Liz Claiborne.

A pre-announcement of Q4 and full-year 2007 earnings forecasts greater-than-expected profit losses prior to the official report due out Feb. 27.

Bear with us as we go through the details. It gets foggier than Pynchon prose at times as you roll down the balance sheet expectations.

For the fourth quarter, the company said it now expects losses of $0.90 to $1.00 per share, with earnings per share of $0.15 to $0.25, compared to earnings  of $0.71 per share in the year-earlier period. Net sales for the fourth quarter are projected at $1.21 billion, down 3% from the prior year.

For the full year, expects losses of $0.25 to $0.35 per share, on the assumption of posting earnings of $1.25 to $1.35 for 2007, a serious dip from earnings of $2.46 a share in 2006. Net sales for 2007 are estimated at about $4.6 billion, down 1.4% from 2006.

It's important to call out that the projects don't include any impact from the sale of the Ellen Tracy brand today, which went to Radius Partners LLC, Westport, Conn., for $27.3 million (plus up to $15 million more, depending on how the brand performs over the next four years). That adds some dollars to the coffers that could help offset some of the expected weakness.

But it's equally important to remember that the  projections don't include the impact of costs associated with the company's efforts to "streamline operations," the shuttering of some of its cosmetics brands, as well as what appear to be the weakened status of those 16 brands the company had under review.

But well, let's let CEO William McComb sort it out. Here's what he had to say.

"While 2007 marked a very difficult period, we see the fundamental in this company heading in the right direction," McComb said in a statement. "This conservative view we are taking in our 2008 guidance-specifically around our Partnered Brands performance—is only prudent given the challenging retail environment."

He also added that "markdown pressure" hit those Partnered Brands—which include Liz Claiborne and Dana Buchman—hard during the quarter, but that they're going on the offensive with recent design deals for Claiborne that include Isaac Mizrahi tackling the women's end and John Bartlett handling men's, as well as licensing Dana Buchman out to Kohl's. For more on that, see here.

On a positive note, it looks like Juicy Couture is doing well, with Q4 comp store sales expected to be up 25%, while the brand jump 23% in sales for the full year. The Lucky brand remains flat against year (hey, it's better than being in the red, people!), though Mexx was down 3% for the quarter and 2% for the year.

Updated: Financial Desk: LVMH Closes Out 2007 with Multi-Category Growth and Teaser For New Vuitton Campaign

Another positive luxury earnings report, now with some
straight talk about how 2008 will shape up, comes across
our desk this morning from Paris-based juggernaut LVMH.

The company, which markets a wide range of luxury products, posted sales gains across every category in its portfolio. In sum, company-wide revenues increased 8% to $24.1 billion, with profits climbing 12% to $5.2 billion for 2007.

While those gains are certainly commendable, Chairman and CEO Bernard Arnault didn't shy away from addressing some of the problems facing the U.S. market, though he was bullish on the company's prospects, given its higher-end clientele.

"It is true that the year is starting in a rather worrisome situation in terms of the economy and the financial markets in particular...[and] our analysis of the situation is that in 2008 we're likely to experience a degree of recession more or less important in the U.S. economy," Arnault said, in a conference call, though he added that January sales were in line with year-end performance for the company and noted that he believes the recession should only last one or two quarters into 2008, with market recovery by 2009.

"I believe that [the recession's] consequences on LVMH will be limited, weak, or even non-existent," Renault said. "In fact, the clientele that we are dealing with is far less affected than the rest of the economy by these short-term economic swings.  They have high purchasing power, located in a number of countries where the economic climate will be bouyant, even if there's a minor recession in the U.S."

Returning back to the quarterly results, of particular interest to us were the following revenue boosts: sales of fashion and leather goods  grew 8% to $8.24 billion, at current exchange rates, in 2007; the perfumes and cosmetics business also grew 8%, with sales of roughly $4 billion; while the watches and jewelry group posted a 13% sales gain, at $1.2 billion.

The company, in a statement, attributed increased revenues in the fashion category to strong performance from its landmark Louis Vuitton brand, as well as "growing success" at Fendi, in addition to solid performances from Marc Jacobs, Givenchy and Loewe. The boost in perfumes and cosmetics came on the back of its popular Christian Dior fragrance line, particularly the J'Adore, Midnight Poison and Fahrenheit 32 scents. Strength in the watches and jewelry category was led by TAG Heuer, which the  company said showed strong progress across all of its markets (for more on TAG's marketing efforts, see previous article, here).

According to statements by Antonio Belloni, deputy managing director, in a conference call, the fragrance departments at Givenchy and Kenzo will be rolling out "aggressive programs," including a renewed advertising campaign for the female market, and a forthcoming men's launch for both brands. No further details were provided.

And Yves Carcelle, president of the fashion and leather goods division, alluded to an evolution of the brand's current campaign with Mikhail Gorbachev . In the call, Carcelle mentioned a "Life After Gorbachev" initiative that would be unveiled "in a few weeks' time."

"For the first time, indeed, in the history of the luxury industry, there will be an audio-visual film which will be used both on TV, in theaters and on the Internet," Carcelle said during the call, describing the spot as "90-seconds of pure emotion." Hmmm... We'll definitely be staying tuned on that one.

Anecdotally, it would appear that Gorbachev campaign (as well as the spots featuring French Actress Catherine Deneuve, both pictured, above) has been successful. I've heard a vast majority of positive reaction to those spots, and, given the pending recession, that campaign isn't a bad strategy for the U.S. market. After all, only the super-moneyed, who are likely the age contemporaries of Gorbachev and Deneuve, will be able to afford those never-marked-down handbags if the economy really gets bad.

Research Desk: What's the Price of Love? Average of $128 Spent on Valentine's This Year, And Men Lead the Charge

What's the price of love?

An average of $128 will be spent on Valentine's Day gifts this year, according to a new study from Brand Keys, New York, though Brand Keys founder Robert Passikoff said, in a statement, that the spending increase was about half the jump in 2006.

The study surveyed 1,200 men and 1,200 women between the ages of 18 and 60 about their purchase intent and celebration plans for the Feb. 14 holiday.  Turns out the guys end up dropping more cash, averaging spends of $166 versus $90 for the ladies. Younger respondents, pegged at 18-34, planned to spend the most, at an average of $162, ahead of 35-49 year olds with an average spend of $69, and those over 50, who planned to spend an average of $52 on Valentine's Day gifts.

Maybe I'm just a big grump, but my boyfriend and I are clocking in at $0, since we don't celebrate Valentine's Day. (Of course, it doesn't hurt that our anniversary falls the day AFTER Valentine's Day, so perhaps our splurge is just time-shifted).

Anyhow, onto the good stuff. While the fashion biz seemed to fall towards the back half, still a strong showing for those looking to market their fragrances, apparel and jewelry collections. Here's the Top 10 Valentine's Day Gifts for 2008:

                            

And for those of you looking to size up which celebrities you'll be wanting to seeding your product to, here's a round-up of the Top 10 Fantasy Dates, broken out by gender. Don't forget, the Oscars are just around the corner! Or are they?

Hey, we didn't make this list, so feel free to post your disagreements below. While we understand George Clooney's placement (though we feel Owen should be up there), we're a bit baffled by Rebecca Romjin's top slot. Seriously? Guys would rather date her than Angelina?

And notice who didn't appear? While Nicole Kidman got a nod, seems like Tom Cruise is out of the picture. Guess no one wants to date crazy anymore.

Lessons in Branding: A Night Out with Ben Sherman

Having attended many fashion parties that were no more
than an excuse to down a bunch of free drinks before going
out for your real night on the town, we must admit that most of them are throw-aways, except in the rare instance that they shed some light on some real branding work.

While such is by far the rarest of breed in the Fashion Week party line up, Ben Sherman's party Friday night at the brand's Soho flagship proved to be a rumination on the execution of a rebranding, if not a somewhat nostalgic trip down memory lane for us (pictures left, via LastNightsParty.com).

If you haven't checked in with Ben Sherman in a while you should, because it's likely very different than you remember. The U.S. vp-marketing, Dana Dynamite has been working to give the brand some serious hipster cred, starting out  first with a MySpace site several years ago (one of the first to jump on that now über-popular chuck wagon) and extending relationships with a series of downtown New York nightlife's more  prominent partiers (and all too often, party promoters by default... hey, even hipsters gotta eat!).

Most recently, the brand inked a partnership with Merlin Bronques, a downtown scene photographer á la, but predating MisShapes (R.I.P.) and The Cobra Snake (we're fairly sure about this, facts about these guys are usually anecdotal at best) as well as newcomers like Nicky Digital (if you don't know these names, you're either over 35 years old or need to seriously re-read your Hipster Handbook). Bronques produced a series of stills—in k eeping with his hipster verité styles—of downtown's denizens that were used for a Christmas OOH campaign here in New York.  Alongside Bronques came a slew of other night-lifers, such as the DJ/comic (huh?) Mike Nouveau (who's really a web marketing and ad sales guy for Paper, and prior to that held similar duties over at Rolling Stone, pictured, left, with friends) and DJ Jess (the skinny, seemingly sexually ambidextrous DJ who used to, and perhaps still does, spin at Rififfi, where you can expect to hear "Kids in America" and "Common People" about 1.75 times each hour).

So, at the party, it all became clear how these kids—we have to laugh here a little bit, since we've seen them evolve over the past four years from awkward kids our friends used to hook up with to something of legitimate (?) nightlife figures, and speaking of Merlin, why did you lose the wig!!??—have been perfectly deployed to revamp this aged British apparel brand both on and offline (they all promote each other via MySpace pages).

The party was thronged with young kids (check out all the images, here.), which isn't such a surprising thing at fashion events, particularly during Fashion Week. But it was thronged with the kinds of people that we recognize, obviously a direct appeal to young twentysomethings who make the rounds at various clubs decked out in DIY and bargain fashions. The walls were splattered with images from the current campaign, and the room packed with a bunch of young, mod-ish looking pretties that posed for Bronques' pictures. (Though due diligence requires us to report that there were some aging club queens out as well, but that's par for the course around downtown NYC. It wouldn't feel like home without them.)

And while our friend did note that the new outdoor campaign looked like "American Apparel Lite" (which, to be fair, is, itself pretty much "1970s-Era Gym Porn Lite"), Ben Sherman was effectively communicating its new message. After being off of our radar for years, Ben Sherman suddenly felt hip. And the product wasn't—particularly the party dresses—bad either.

And it's not just our musings either. Agyness Deyn, that pixie-faced model you've been seeing in nearly everyone's campaigns this year, popped into the party, wearing some super high shouldered blue jacket and with a mini-entourage of bottle blonds in tow.  That  surely says something, whether she was comp'ed  for the night or not. Though I'm starting to worry about Agyness as a brand spokesperson—seems she's been a bit of the village bicycle lately and while we love her look, we have to wonder how much Agyness we'll have to see before we get fatigue and move on.

And speaking of moving on, while we love the 1980s, I think it's time we stopped LITERALLY reinterpreting the decadent decade. Seriously, there's a way to pull off hip without being a literal reproduction of a Salt N' Peppa album cover. Cheap, clunky gold chain and patent purses were always passé people!

Financial Desk: H&M Powers Through Another Impressive Quarter

H&M continues its charge through the fashion world
with another strong earnings season.

Per the company's quarterly, and annual, earnings report released this morning, fourth quarter sales grew 17% to $3.57 billion in domestic currency (at current exchange rates), and profits jumped 14% to roughly $975 million.

Though the company did seem to feel a similar slump in the month of December, where sales decreased by 10% over the previous year, sales through Jan. 29 (one has to marvel at the efficiency that can include sales figures from as recently as two days ago in such a report!), sales have increased 16%. Results for the U.S. market, specifically, were not provided.

Full-year results for fiscal 2006/2007 were similarly positive, with sales climbing 15% to $12.3 billion, and profits resting solidly at the $3.0 billion mark, an increase of 21%.

The company plans to control roughly 190 stores for the next fiscal year, focusing its efforts in 2008 on building up markets in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Oman. Stores are expected to open in the Russian market in 2009.

The retailer is currently gearing up for the release of its "Fashion Against AIDS" collection, which bows tomorrow. The group of t-shirts, tank tops and hooded sweaters were designed in conjunction with Designers Against AIDS (DAA) and music industry celebrities including Rihanna, Timbaland, Rufus Wainwright (pictured in the spot above), Scissor Sisters, and Ziggy Marley, and Good Charlotte, among others. Twenty-five percent of sales from the line, priced at roughly $16-$40 (at current exchange) will go to various HIV/AIDS prevention projects at non-profits worldwide.

In 2006, H&M spent $17 million on measured media advertising in the U.S. market, and through November 2007, has spent $18 million, per Nielsen Monitor-Plus.

The Luxury Market, The Recession and What Marketers Can Do About It

If you haven't checked it out already—and it seems many of you have since it's o ne of the most popular stories on our site this week—give a quick gloss to my story about mass affluent consumers retreating from the luxury market as we head into what analysts and the papers seems to be projecting as a certain American recession. Read the full story here. 

Raúl Martinez, CEO and  executive creative director over at AR New York (they've done worked for brands including Salvatore Ferragamo, Dolce & Gabbana, Yves Saint Laurent, Versace and the most recent ads for Valentino, post the namesake's well-publicized adieu, pictured at right) seemed to sum it up nicely.

“I think the downturn in the luxury-goods market is now trickling down to Europe and it’s been a shock to many over there," he told me. "For a while there’s been a sort of comfort-level that luxury brands have enjoyed. Consumer are cautious and luxury brands are in alert mode.”

It's an interesting time for sure, and many of the analysts and consultants I spoke to for this story told me that they see several key points emerging from the luxury market's stumble over the past few weeks:

1. That affected luxury brands were taken by surprise given that they underestimated how much of their growth over the past five years had been fueled by these mass affluent consumers;

2. That the first area where tightened budgets might force some changes will be in the marketing and advertising departments. (This is, of course, a general market theory as well, and can be extrapolated to areas far beyond the luxury market in specific.;

3. And that some of those tightened ad dollars could increasingly go towards online campaigns, which offer greater ROI than the traditional media (no big secret to anyone) and also have the additional benefit of global reach that could prompt sales in foreign markets, which are still a thriving area for luxury goods.

However, the problem is that luxury marketers will most likely not be making quick, dramatic changes to their traditional media buys.

As Pam Danziger, the head of Unity Marketing, a luxury consultancy based in Stevens, Pa., told me: "The idea that magazine and TV advertising will go away is ridiculous, but what will become more important is having a better understanding of the consumer they're looking at. It's becoming much more vertical...with some of these niche magazines providing more connection to [the luxury sector's] real target market."

This trend seemed to be confirmed by Jason Binn, CEO of Niche Media, New York. Unless you're part of the uber-wealthy for whom these magazines are as ubiquitous as McDonald's golden arches are for the rest of us, you've probably seen his titles—among them Gotham, Hamptons, Ocean Drive and Los Angeles Confidential—in the high dollar rooms you booked through the company for a recent conference in Vegas. I know that I never stay at The Hotel on my own dime.

Per Danizger's assertion, Binn's group offers luxury marketers access to the consumers who will buy their products regardless of recessionary woes, the kind of folks, who, to paraphrase a WWD headline a few days ago, are more concerned with getting their high heels wet waiting in a drizzle outside of Chanel's couture show, than they are about this "thing" called a recession.

The titles are distributed to a consumer base in which roughly 50% have annual household incomes of over $250,000, as well as liquid assets and homes each valued at over $1 million. The books are also distributed through Net Jets, the private jet company owned by Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway, where Binn says he reaches customers with an average net worth of $25 million. 

"[Luxury brands] are relying on us more than ever to vertically integrate their products and their services to these wealth markets that we’re targeting with these very unique readers and consumers that we have,” Binn told me. “The [vast majority of] mainstream consumer magazines can’t really deliver those kind of  economic demographics to these brands.”

Though he did acknowledge that luxury marketers were shifting some dollars to more non-traditional media, for his part, Martinez said that it's a time when these brands need to maintain a consistency in their messaging.

"At a time like this its more important than ever to communicate with a singular voice and a singular vision...I think the worst thing a brand can do is to deviate from who they truly are, because over the long-term consumer confidence will be lost," Martinez told me. "One thing I think we have seen over the last number of years is a movement away from the more emotional creative and towards a more product-centric messaging. More dollars are being applied to Resort and Pre-Fall which are becoming true collections in their own right, where wearability becomes much bigger.”

Looks like for now, we'll have to play a game of wait and see concerning how the ad market will change for luxury players. Saks Fifth Avenue, for example, has already said that they're looking into doing ads in foreign magazines to grab some more tourism dollars, something the luxe retailer has never done before, and soon they'll start offering international shipping on their e-commerce Web site.

Meanwhile, I'll be comparison shopping the Vogue ad pages to see if any of this media shift stuff pans out. Oh, and Vanity Fair, you're on my list too.

Liz Claiborne Steals Isaac Mizrahi from Target!

Talk about a shake-up.

It appears that after a successful, five year marriage to Target, designer Isaac Mizrahi is setting sail for Liz Claiborne.

As the newly-tapped creative director for the Claiborne brand, Mizrahi, one of fashion's more ebullient and popular personalities, will oversee design and marketing for the brand's women's apparel, accessories and licensing businesses. His first collection under the Liz Claiborne label is slated to debut in spring 2009.

"[We] believe that [Mizrahi's] innovative design sense and widespread appeal will breathe new life into the Liz Claiborne brand," said Liz CEO William McComb, in a statement. "It is certainly no secret that the brand has been lacking a clear and cohesive vision and has languished as a result. With this appointment, we are taking a major step towards our goal of creating irresistible product that will provide today's discerning woman with a compelling reason to buy."

While no financials of the deal were disclosed, Mizrahi's own statement seems to betray, if not a fairly lucrative deal, then at least boosted branding opportunities for the designer who pioneered the high/low design ethos when he signed on to produce a women's collection for Target in 2003, paving the way for many others who followed in succession, including Karl Lagerfeld (in 2004, with a capsule collection for H&M), and most recently, Vera Wang (in 2007, with her Very Vera collection for Kohl's). For more on those partnerships, and their impact in the industry, please see my previous article, "Split Personality," here.

"I'm honored to have the opportunity to build on this fantastic legacy and excited to reestablish the label as a must have," Mizrahi said, in a statement. "And as excited as I am about developing Liz Claiborne, the collaboration also affords fantastic opportunities for growth in my own brand."

Aside from the forthcoming collection for Liz Claiborne, Mizrahi will also bow his new web-based series, "Watch Isaac," in February at WatchIsaac.com. His collections for Target will continue to be sold through the mass-retailer throughout 2008.

However, we have to say that the move seems a risky one, given several factors. First, Isaac had a pretty successful collection at Target, reportedly garnering annual sales of $300 million. Why shirk that to head over to Liz Claiborne, which posted 65% dip in third quarter net income on a 4% sales drop? And yet, it's not like things are all milk and honey over at Target, which posted a sales gain of only 0.1% (at $9.26 billion) for the month of December. Then again, it's important to remember that Mizrahi is no stranger to ups and downs himself, and that the deal he inked with Target back in 2003 can be credited, at least in large part, to revamping what was then an ailing name brand.

What the move means for Liz, and its impact on Target's business, remain to be seen.

"It can't hurt Liz Claiborne...but the issues there are more than one individual can conquer. Bringing the brand back to its heyday will require a lot more than just a new design concept or featuring a household name on the brand's marquee; it will have to be a major shift in management, merchandising, marketing and advertising and ," said Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst at NPD Group, Port Washington, N.Y. "As for Target, they've shown that they understand the consumers' desire and the need to constantly revolve  their brands. Will they miss Isaac? Probably. But they'll find something to replace [him]."

Cohen also suggested that Mizrahi might have some growing pains to contend with in his new post.

"He was an island unto himself at Target; all of those other brands paled in comparison to his work, and he was treated as the prized jewel in that environment, " Cohen said. "In the mall environment [where Claiborne is], he'll be up against hundreds of other brands, where he's no longer the shining star by default."

 

The news of Mizrahi's switch comes following the appointment, earlier this week, of John Bartlett as Claiborne's new men's sportswear designer.

On a lighter note, if you're unfamiliar with Mizrahi or if you feel you need a refresher course on why this guy seems to be such a hot commodity for these mass merchants, check out "Unzipped," the 1995 documentary that took Isaac as its subject, with all his quirky humor and non sequitur dialog to go along the way.

One of our favorite lines: "All I want to do is fur pants, but I know, like if I do them, I will be stoned off of Seventh Avenue, like some wanton heretic or something. So there won't be any fur pants coming down my runway. It's about women not wanting to look like cows or something."

Marketing Ethics in The Valley of the Stardolls

  Stardoll.com, a social-play Web site for 9 to 17 year-old girls, announced this week that it has inked a deal with supermodel/auf'er Heidi Klum to promo