Fashion Notebook

Financial Desk: Sales Down, But Earnings Up 40% for Gap, as Retailer Cuts Marketing Budget

We hate to see this, because it means less creative, but cutting its marketing expenses was one tactic that helped Gap bolster its bottom line, even as sales continued their slide into the red.

In addition to other cost cutting measures that included reduced remodeling efforts for Old Navy stores, and a $15 million pre-tax earnings benefit, Sabrina Simmons, Gap Inc.’s EVP/CFO, said in an earnings call late Thursday that “lower marketing expenses” also helped lift earnings 40% to $249 million, for the quarter ended May 3.

So where was the blood spilled in the marketing department?

Well, ad spend dropped almost 18% from the year-earlier period, closing at $93 million for the quarter. The $21 million reduction was due in large part to the absence of TV spots for the Gap brand, Simmons said. However, she added that shareholders and analysts shouldn’t expect such cuts to continue.

“Unlike this first quarter, we expect our marketing expenses in the second quarter to be fairly similar to last year’s level of $88 million,” she said.

Yay! Maybe we'll have some more fun creative to look forward to this summer, when we're all staying indoors and running the air conditioners to escape from global warming. That is, though of us who have TV. (We're luddites, y'all, except when we visit our wife to watch rounds and rounds of Lifetime Movies.)

While earnings might have been a bright spot, and showed the beleaguered firm capable of trimming costs for the benefit of its investors, sales trends showed signs of trouble amid an economic slowdown that has the whole retail industry reeling. Comp store sales at Gap North America dropped 7% for the quarter to $976 million, and Old Navy posted an 18% decrease, dropping to $1.2 billion in sales.

If you don't have your financial party hat on, folks, that means, pretty much, "things sucked  over the past three months." Which is too bad for Old Navy, because we, (and the wife), LOVE those new ads. It's like Gossip Girl meets Fred Flare's Crafternoon Delights. Seriously, some fierce-ass dresses that might have the retailer beating Forever 21 at its own game. Seriously, if you haven't seen these ads (also screen-grabbed, above, right), they just might change the way you view Old Navy. They did for us.

Meanwhile, on the richer side of things, Banana Republic's comp store sales dropped 4% to $538 million and Glenn Murphy, chairman and CEO,  said that the brand had been affected by challenging traffic trends, and an “uncharacteristically promotional” environment at the apparel chain’s direct competitors. Thus far, Banana Republic has avoided playing the promotional card to drive sales.

“We’re watching the competitive landscape very closely,” added Murphy. “And [we] are prepared to make the necessary adjustments to drive traffic if this promotional level that we are seeing currently was to continue.”

Yay SALES that are sure to come. Because, honey, that's a brand for the aspirational rich, not the real rich, and we ain't getting any more money any time soon. That is, until Obama is in the White House, but we don't want to get political. We just want good health care, education, and leadership that will get us out of this war, y'know, in less than 100 years. But we digress.

Net sales for the company dropped about 5% to $3.38 billion for the first quarter. The company has maintained its guidance for fiscal 2008 earnings per share to fall in the range of $1.20 to $1.27.

Lesssons In Branding: Is Vera Wang the Next Martha Stewart?

Vera Wang, a high-end designer who has made a name for herself over the past two decades creating wedding gowns (with price tags to match, and photo'ed, right), is now opening her own wedding registry—a first in the designer market. Which kind of surprises us, and then, eh, not so much, and then we're all like: "Hey why did no one think of this before?!"

(Full disclosure: It was a late night, and stayed up party with the Cuervo people waaay past our already respectably late bedtime, so if we seem a little dazed today, it's not you, or Vera for that matter. It's us, sweetcakes.)

Anyhow... back to the relevance. VeraWangonWeddings.com will allow not only custom registries for engaged couples, but also a breakdown of runway trends, e-commerce, couples quizzes and wedding planning ideas from Wang herself.

But the bridal registry and e-commerce site is only the tip of the branding iceberg for Wang. In a series of moves similar to those of the one-woman empire orchestrated by love-her-or-hate-her-you-betta- respect-her Martha Stewart, the designer has recently expanded into diverse categories such as bedding, home goods and stationary. Additionally, Wang launched a collection for Kohl's stores late last year.

"Our authoritative position in bridal and bridal registry has allowed us to leverage this [consumer] trust into a lifestyle brand," said Wang. "The next logical step is to capitalize on our relationship with the client over the course of their lives. Our objective is to continue to grow our lifestyle product offering and keep pace with the evolving needs of the consumer."

Wang added that, moving forward, her company is exploring expansion into furniture, decorative fabrics, rugs, lighting and even a Wang-branded line of paint. Now we just won't know who's jungle green to trust when we repaint the bathroom: Vera's or Ralph's?

But what's to stop Wang from becoming like others who burst into multi-category expansions like Bill Blass or Halston, and getting less than sterling results? (Take "less than sterling" to mean abominable here, dears.) Well, apparently, it's because, as Dylan used to croon in that nails-on-a-chalkboard voice: The times they are a-changin'. And so are consumers and designers, y'all!

"We're at a different time for both consumers and designers; and I think Vera is really capitalizing on the ability to do both high and low in the design realm," said Wendy Liebman, CEO of WSL Retail, New York. "The level of sophistication and level of exposure of shoppers has changed and that acceptance, through what's gone on with H&M's designer collaborations, has really opened a door."

For Liebman, Wang's strategy makes sense and she doesn't seem to be stretching the bounds of her brand potential. "The expansion into bridal registry is a logical one, and the home goods are the same . . . Certainly her work with Kohl's appears to be working," said Liebman. "When you look at what Bill Blass or Halston did, versus what Martha or Vera are doing now, you've got a convergence of a smarter shopper and a smarter designer."

Yes, yes, all well and good. And we think V might actually pull it off.

But if her marketing folks are reading this, please, please let us make one wish for how she rolls out home goods, particularly kitchen appliances. Forget the Today Show and get Ms. Wang's face on Food Network's "Paula's Party." We're salivating at the proposition of having Paul Deen (photo, left) do a wedding cake episode with Wang brought on as creative consultant, and having Deen shout out: "We're making weddings today, y'all, and I've brought along my good friend, hot cutter, I'm sorry, I'm sorry, howit creature... Oh whatever y'all, it's fashion designer Vera Wang!" The episode practically writes itself.

This is a sure-fire way to sell Wang, and her image, unequivocally to the lucrative Middle America and mass markets.

Week in Review Pt. 1: Louis Vuitton Rocks Out, Kohl's Gets Punked, and More Rumbles for the Luxury Market

OK, so we've kinda been bad lovers the past two weeks. Yeah, we admit it;
we haven't been updating as often as we, or you, would like. But our offline
job got a bit crazed last week and that prevented us from posting. So, in effect, it's not you, it's us.

Also, we were, like, on pins and needles waiting for the finale of Project Runway. And, hopefully you'll agree, we're so, so, so, fiercely happy that Christian Siriano won we can barely contain ourselves. Kid has some serious talent, and we're sure that we'll be hearing from him sometime soon. Is he adoptable  by the way? We might just forego that Boston Terrier we'd been planning on bringing home and swap it for that adorable pocket-gay (though he'll have to sleep in a closet, as we're still living in a New York state of reality folks!).

But let's leave all this relationship drama to the Spitzers! It's time to take a look at what's happened, what it means, and where we see things going... So without further ado...

Louis Vuitton's New Bag
Unless you've been hiding out under a mountain of paperwork (like us), you've probably already heard that Rolling Stones guitarist Keith Richards is the new, wrinkly face of Louis Vuitton (SEE PHOTO, BELOW, LEFT). (Insert "Vuitton's new, iconic wrinkled bag" joke here, hell, everyone else has. For SHAME Saturday Night Live! You, like fashion, were more inventive in the 1980s.) If you haven't seen the spot already, check the photo at right.

We have to say to say that this is an interesting choice, and it's already done its job many times over in terms of exposure (more than we'd imagine placing, say, Katherine Heigl, or some other, safer choice, in front of the camera). But hasn't Vuitton really missed the rebel-rock-me boat by like, say, 40 years? We would prefer to see the ads featuring this Keith.

Also, how does John Varvatos feel about all of this. Certainly, the Stones trump Cheap Trick, not to mention the fact that the campaign pretty much cribs from Varvatos' own advertising mantra: Bring back old rockers and consumers will come. Of  course, Varvatos seems to have more credibility here and we're still not sure what a great cover boy Richards is for the brand. After all, while he's definitely rich beyond words—and amazingly still alive—we're just not sold on him as a real luxury guy. Then again, maybe that's what rehab and old age will do to you. I'm sure that he has a wonderful assortment of organic teas backstage, but is he really throwing those outfits in a Vuitton steamer?

Love to hear your thoughts on this. Drop us a line, here.

Kohls Pumps Up Its Juniors Jam with Avril Lavigne
Yeah, the girl ain't punk kids. Then again, Richards sold his ass to Louis Vuitton, so what does define the legitimate rocker persona? Anyways, Avril Lavigne maybe didn't steal your boyfriend, but she did ink a deal with Kohl's to produce "Abbey Dawn," a collection of apparel (priced $24 to $48) and accessories (read: jewelry, for now) that will hit the mass merchant's doors nationwide in July.

The move obviously means that Lavigne will get some dollars in her coffers—seriously, is she even that hot anymore?—but it also seems to really define her audience in a way that could be limiting for the popstar. Launching just in time for back-to-school shopping, the line is allegedly for the "broad group of shoppers" that Lavigne attracts, according to SVP Don Brennan, but we're calling bullshit. If it's B-T-S, the tricks are for kids, and that's fine, after all, those are the types that will pay retail for her album "The Best Damn Thing," which came out last year and for which the star began touring to support last week.

According to spokeswoman Vicki Shamian, the line shouldn't cannibalize any of the retailer's other exclusive brands, like Candies given Avril (and by proxy, her collection's) "feminine yet rock n' roll attitude." [Side note: Meanwhile, no notes on how the Simply Vera collection is doing. If you've got deets, or reactions, or if you've tried on the products, send a note here]. Advertising, on which details aren't yet available, will be handled by the Kohl's in-house team, in conjunction with lead agency McCann Erickson, New York. Stayed tuned.

 

Financial Desk: Luxury Retail's Mixed Bag
Ok, so we've probably hammered this to death, but there might be trouble with the luxury market.

Saks Fifth Avenue announced last week that it had approached roughly $1 billion in sales for the quarter ended Feb. 2, up almost 5% from the year-earlier period, but with comp store sales increasing by 9%. Meanwhile, net income rose dramatically, some 83% drama, to $39.5 million, or 26 cents a diluted share. However, gross margin slipped about 50 basis points to 37.4% of sales.

But there's trouble ahead. According to a statement by chairman and CEO Steven Sadove, January and February comp store sales grew by only 4.1% and 3.4%, respectively, and "previously high-growth rate businesses such as handbags, footwear and men's have slowed."

"As expected, the more challenging promotional and overall macroeconomic environment that we began to experience in the third quarter continued throughout the fourth quarter and put pressure on our merchandise margins," Sadove continued. "Our outsized comparable store sales growth indicates that we significantly improved our competitive positioning by market, driven by our merchandise, service marketing and capital investments."

And then  came the wahn-wahn moment.

"Nothwithstanding our improved performance and the longer-term outlook for the luxury channel, we expect to continue to face an increasingly challenging macroeconomic and promotional environment in 2008, and are taking a more conservative approach to planning the business this year," Sadove said, adding that the company expects to see comp store sales growth in the mid-single digits for 2008, with low-to-mid single digit growth in the first half of the year.

Meanwhile, at Neiman Marcus, positive earnings were also overcast by ominous notes. Revenues at the luxury department store grew almost 6% to $1.37 billion in the second quarter ended Jan. 26, while net earnings grew 8% to $44.3 million. However, February comp stores sales posted a 7.3% decrease.

In a conference call, Neiman Marcus chairman and CEO Burt Tansky seemed to feel, well, pretty much like every other luxury retailer these days. He's playing a cautious game as the news of a buckling economy and decreased consumer spending prophecies an even rougher year.

"As we all know, the entire U.S. retail sector has seen sales growth diminish somewhat, and this slowdown has affected some parts of the luxury market," he said in the call. "Our sense is that the aspirational customer has pulled back somewhat in response to concerns about the U.S. economy in stock and housing markets. However, this aspirational customer appreciates quality and can be expected to buy more as the economy improves. Nevertheless, we feel confident that the pure luxury customer, the affluent to the very affluent, will continue to demand only the finest."

Seems plausible, of course, except that we're not getting at raw numbers here. What's the proportion of aspirational consumers to pure luxury consumers? Wethinks it be disproportionate and that Neiman's might have a few, hopefully not too many, pricey dresses that are staying on the racks as Sex and the City fangirls start closing up their upper-middle class purses.

Financial Desk: On Q4 and FY07 Losses, Macy's To Investors: "Hey, We're Not Doing As Badly As The Others!"

It's not a good day for retailers, with many reporting sales
and earnings slumps.

In its report this morning, Macy's appears to be hoping that they might at least look better than the competition.

"While a weakened economic environment led our industry to softer financial results than initially expected, Macy's, Inc. did outperform most of our primary competitors in the fourth quarter," said Terry Lundgren, chairman, president and CEO, in a statement. "We also generated significant cash flow despite weaker-than-expected sales trends. Going  forward, we are aggressively pursuing our recently announced market localization initiative to drive future sales and earnings."

What's he talking about? Well, earlier this month, the brand announced that they would be consolidating their various Macy's regional divisions into three primary groups: Macy's East, Macy's West, and Macy's South. Within each of those divisions will be 20 "districts," each consisting of about 10 stores, governed by a new workforce of about 250 managers. The thought is that by having more management in more localized markets, the company will be able to make much more specific marketing appeals to its consumers, tailoring everything to their particularly tastes, whims, or geographic proclivities. Of course, that consolidation also includes the downsizing of some 2,550 jobs across the previous geo-divisions. More on that, here.

 

Oh, and also, Macy's announced that it will no longer be reporting same-store monthly sales figures, which, you know, are the clearest indicator of a retailer's performance inbetween earnings reports. Oh, and another thing, they're not going to be giving anymore estimates about sales and earnings for the future. That certainly sounds like an underwhelming vote of confidence in the company's ability to perform.

"In total, 2007 was a year of significant strategic progress," added Lundgren, in a statement. "We successfully launched exclusive new brands such as Martha Stewart Collection, invested for continued growth in the direct-to-consumer business, expanded Bloomingdale's, changed our corporate name, and launched a breakthrough new marketing approach under the umbrella of 'The Magic of Macy's'."

You probably remember that particular campaign from the holiday season, when you were besieged by a commercial with a melee of images of Donald Trump, Sean Combs, Martha Stewart (who almost seemed warm and whom we were also relieved to see unshackled from KMart), and mental eyesore Jessica Simpson hawking their products sold through the mega-retailer.

Lay your chips down, folks, we're betting on Martha as the sales driving leader in the full collection category this year. Hopefully, for Macy's she'll be "a good thing."

Financial Desk: Polo Ralph Lauren Sales Climb 13% in Q3

Looks like Polo Ralph Lauren will follow Coach in refuting
those analyst downgrades last month.

The New York-based fashion house posted a 13% increase in sales, at $1.2 billion for the third quarter ended Dec. 29, though net income rose a scant 2% to $112.7 million, or $1.08 per diluted share, over the same period. Polo also upped its fiscal year-end earnings guidance, now anticipating earnings per share in the lower end of a $3.64-$3.74 range. The prior guidance has been $3.50 to $3.60.

"Even in the context of macroeconomic uncertainty, our strategies remain intact," said Roger Farah, president and CEO, in a statement, an obvious allusion to fears over the pending U.S. recession's impact on the luxury market (for more on that, see my previous article, "Mass Affluents Retreat En Masse," here).

"Our company offers the highest quality, aspirational merchandise across the entire consumer spectrum," added Ralph Lauren, chairman and CEO, in a statement. "The diversity of our brand portfolio, the strength of our lifestyle positioning,  the talent of our creative and managerial teams and our increasingly global reach are enviable assets that position us well for long-term growth."

It's the last part of that statement that has gotten us to thinking: Has Polo really beaten the U.S. recession?

The company does not break out its sales for the U.S. region, in particular. No real surprise there, many global companies shy away from doing so. But there were some other indicators that have us scratching our head a bit.

"In the past few years, we have made significant long-term investments in our international business with the expansion of Europe, product categories such as Lauren and childrenswear, and channel expansion with our own retail stores and e-commerce," said Farah, in a statement. "Our more recent efforts include the repositioning of Japan and the development of accessories. While the recent decline in consumer spending presents near-term challenges, we continue to invest in our strategic initiatives as we believe they are long-term drivers of shareholder value."

So it would seem that Polo is hitching its horse, at least in part, to the international and e-commerce markets. Interesting, particularly in light of the conversation I had with luxury analyst Milton Pedraza (of The Luxury Institute, New York) a while back. Pedraza told me that, in the wake of the recession,  luxury brands had three main points of attack to weather the storm: focusing only on the super-rich who would be effectively immune from an economic recession, focusing on international markets to provide global relief for near-term losses in the U.S., and beefing up their online presence to accomplish that global reach.

Seems like Polo is hitting two out of three now. Of course, it would seem that the broad array of price points the brand offers might also provide some recession-ready padding.

Still no information on what role, if any, advertising and marketing played in the quarterly results. Will have to wait on that for later. Can't imagine they'd have much impact, since they've been fairly boring and cookie-cutter across the various collections. Enjoy a recent spot, above.

Polo spent $57 million on measured media advertising in the U.S. market for 2006, and spent $58 million through November 2007, per Nielsen Monitor-Plus.